Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $4,343 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 29 at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds, along with tickets for the $4,343 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Fraser Downs 25% Win Bonus: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Feb. 8 through Feb. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 4: $16,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 2:51 p.m. ET)

#1 Gun Maestro (3-1) tracked the pace while racing wide in a $25,000 claimer on Jan. 18, then faded to finish a distant fifth. We’ll forgive that effort since the Aqueduct main track seemed to play unkindly toward outside runners on Jan. 18.

Gun Maestro was claimed out of that contest by trainer Linda Rice, a 23% winner with new claiming acquisitions and a lofty 38% winner with horses dropping in class off a claim. Gun Maestro cracked the trifecta in a trio of $16,000 claimers during the fall at Aqueduct and looms as a logical win threat while returning to that class level on Thursday.

Let’s bet Gun Maestro to win and key him over #9 Red D G P (8-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Gun Maestro (3-1)
• #9 Red D G P (8-5)
• #8 South Street (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Gun Maestro
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 9
  Total: $30

Aqueduct: Race 7: $50,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile, 4:26 p.m. ET)

#6 Grace Reformed (6-1) put up a good try in a $32,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct on Jan. 18, rallying from off the pace to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths. She gained 2 3/4 lengths through the final furlong even while running wide down the lane.

Grace Reformed is adding blinkers for Thursday’s contest and can outrun expectations if she encounters a fair track. At 6-1, Grace Reformed is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #6 Grace Reformed (6-1)
• #4 Progeny (3-1)
• #3 Run for Your Honey (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Grace Reformed

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (about 1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#9 Gotta Keep Him (3-1) has competed three times against maiden special weight competition on turf, finishing fifth, seventh, and fifth while earning consistent Brisnet Speed ratings of 71, 72, and 74. His most recent effort came racing about a mile at Fair Grounds, where Gotta Keep Him rallied into a decent closing fraction to finish only three lengths behind the winner.

Dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer for his first start as a gelding should make Gotta Keep Him tough to beat for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who wins at a 21% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight into maiden claiming company. The fact none of Gotta Keep Him’s rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 67 on turf cements him as a compelling win choice.

Selections

• #9 Gotta Keep Him (3-1)
• #3 Dream Cruise (8-1)
• #10 Brie’s Mission (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Gotta Keep Him

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $4,343 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers in Thursday’s ninth race at Turfway Park, you’ll win a share of a $4,343 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 9 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. A dozen runners have entered, which equates to 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes. But we can slice the possibilities to consider all the way down to 7,920 by keying morning line favorite #3 Kara and Colleen (2-1) on top.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 81, a number Kara and Colleen has repeatedly matched or exceeded.  She’s performed quite well running long over the Tapeta track at Gulfstream Park, cracking the trifecta in a quartet of maiden special weights while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 80, 81, 82, and 83. But her career-best 85 came in her lone sprint start to date, when she rallied to finish second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs turf course.

Kara and Colleen hasn’t run since October, but she’s trained sharply for her 2024 debut, even clocking a bullet three furlongs in :34 1/5 at Turfway last Friday. She’s a Speed rating standout against Thursday’s field and surely the filly to beat.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #12 Heartstruck (9-2). Two starts against maiden special weight competition on turf last year produced a runner-up finish sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis Park and a fifth-place finish racing one mile against a large field at Kentucky Downs. Her dam, Perfect for You, won a stakes over the old Polytrack course at Turfway, so Heartstruck has the potential to appreciate switching from turf to synthetic.

#2 Dee Minus (4-1) can’t be underestimated either. She’s stepping up in class after rallying to finish second by a nose in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month, but she earned a respectable 75 Brisnet Speed rating and still has upside while racing for only the second time. It’s encouraging to note hot jockey Luan Machado is named to ride.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,12 with 2,12 with 5,6,11 with 5,6,9,10,11 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,12 with 5,6,11 with 2,12 with 5,6,9,10,11 ($24)
  Total: $48

And for good measure, since Race 9 is part of the Winter Money Back promotion, we’ll place a win bet on Kara and Colleen:

• $20 to win on #3 Kara and Colleen

Good luck!