Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 6-1 to win on debut

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds, Delta Downs, and Turfway Park, including a 6-1 first-time starter.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Fraser Downs 25% Win Bonus: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Feb. 8 through Feb. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:45 p.m. ET)

The field for this six-furlong maiden special weight hasn’t come up especially deep on paper. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 88, but none of the experienced runners have posted a number higher than 81.

Therefore, we’ll take a shot backing first-time starter #4 Cruel Endeavor (6-1), the lone three-year-old in a field primarily filled with older horses. A son of Cat Burglar (who sires a respectable 14% winners from first-time starters), Cruel Endeavor showed some ability when breezing half a mile from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :48 2/5 earlier this month.

Trainer Lane Johnston has gone 0-for-3 saddling first-time starters since beginning training in 2023, but one of those debuting runners—Hoodwinked—finished a good third as a 24-1 longshot in a maiden special weight at Prairie Meadows last summer. There are enough positives in Cruel Endeavor’s corner to suggest he has a shot to surprise while toting only 117 pounds, eight fewer than his older rivals.

A win bet is the way we’ll play. 

Selections

• #4 Cruel Endeavor (6-1)
• #7 Mo Rum (3-1)
• #3 Auto Dial (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Cruel Endeavor

Delta Downs: Race 6: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (seven furlongs, 8:43 p.m. ET)

#1 Tennessee Moon (8-5) has been on fire, winning five straight races at Delta Downs with sharp (and generally improving) Brisnet Speed ratings of 77, 83, 81, 83, and 87. Four of those wins have come by daylight margins.

With her early speed and red-hot form, Tennessee Moon is an easy choice to record a sixth straight victory. Figuring that Tennessee Moon’s speed will burn out other logical speed horses like #8 Saenz (5-1) and #4 Xcaret (8-1), let’s try keying Tennessee Moon over the more tractable #10 Blessed Anna (6-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tennessee Moon (8-5)
• #10 Blessed Anna (6-1)
• #4 Xcaret (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 10

Turfway Park: Race 7: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#6 Queen of Missoula (7-2) made her Tapeta debut in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/4 miles at Turfway, and she delivered an eye-catching victory. Despite trailing the field through slow early fractions of :25.19, :49.81, and 1:15.52, Queen of Missoula gobbled up ground down the homestretch to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

Queen of Missoula may receive a quicker tempo to work with while sticking to the same track and distance on Thursday, giving her every chance to bring her Tapeta record to 2-for-2. At 7-2, we’ll bet Queen of Missoula to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #6 Queen of Missoula (7-2)
• #4 White Lilacs (5-2)
• #5 Whenthedawnbreaks (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Queen of Missoula

Good luck!