Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Admiral Dennis can win second start

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 7 at Mahoning Valley, Churchill Downs, and Charles Town, including horses to play in Mahoning’s $5,341 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#6 Kozy Night (9-2) is a first-time starter from the barn of Larry Smith, a 22% winner at Mahoning Valley this meet and a 27% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Kozy Night isn’t facing the toughest field and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Angel Diaz, a 60% winner teaming up with Smith over the last two months. Let’s try a win bet on Kozy Night.

Selections

• #6 Kozy Night (9-2)
• #2 Cowgirltakemeaway (5-2)
• #7 Dancehall Justice (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Kozy Night

Churchill Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:55 p.m. ET)

#10 Admiral Dennis (8-5) ran into traffic trouble when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, but nevertheless he closed some ground to finish third by two lengths.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, so stretching out over one mile should suit this well-bred son of Constitution. Throw in the fact jockey Luis Saez (50% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) is named to ride, and Admiral Dennis is deserving of a win bet.

We’ll also play an exacta using #2 Oh Monaco (5-1) and #6 Mischievous Time (8-1) for second place.

Selections

• #10 Admiral Dennis (8-5)
• #2 Oh Monaco (5-1)
• #6 Mischievous Time (8-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #10 Admiral Dennis
• $4 Exacta: 10 with 2,6 ($8)
  Total: $30

Charles Town: Race 2: $15,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 7:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Sarah’s Candy Camp (7-5) has won two straight races at Charles Town. He was claimed out of victory in a $12,500 claimer against West Virginia-breds sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs; then, in his first start for ultra-hot trainer Stephen Murdock (a 51% winner at Charles Town this meet), Sarah’s Candy Comp won a non-state-restricted seven-furlong allowance.

Those victories yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 82. Returning to the West Virginia-bred ranks for a $15,000 allowance optional claimer should make Sarah’s Candy Camp tough to beat, so let’s play him over #3 Sargent Kobe (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Sarah’s Candy Camp (7-5)
• #3 Sargent Kobe (8-5)
• #1 Fancy Concho (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 4 with 3

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $5,341 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

A tricky sequence awaits bettors hoping to win a share of the $5,341 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs at Mahoning Valley on Thursday.

Mathematically speaking, it’s not so difficult; the five races drew a total of 42 horses, averaging 8.4 per race. Three of the races drew seven or fewer entries, and there are only 34,398 possible outcomes to analyze before scratches.

But two factors complicate the ticket assembly process. One, the minimum bet amount is $1 rather than the usual 50 cents for Pick 5 wagers, making the wager expensive to play. Two, it’s difficult to find a reliable single to build tickets around—there simply isn’t a standout win candidate in any of the five races.

So instead, we’ll highlight two races in which bettors should be able to get by using only two horses.

The first opportunity is Race 1, a $10,000 claimer for Ohio-breds who have never won three races. The six-furlong dirt dash has drawn half a dozen entries, with #5 Radio Silent (8-5) the slight favorite after wiring a $10,000 claimer for Ohio-breds who have never won two races. That victory came here at Mahoning Valley by 4 1/4 lengths and yielded a sharp 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

But two starts back, in a $16,000 claimer for Ohio-breds who have never won two races, Radio Silent was beaten 3 1/4 lengths by #3 Jodhpur (2-1), who earned a 67 Brisnet Speed rating. Jodhpur subsequently faltered to fifth place when tackling $50,000 company, but dropping down to the $10,000 level should make him mighty dangerous in his rematch with Radio Silent. We recommend using both.

The other event that looks rather like a two-horse battle is Race 4, the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which the unraced #6 Kozy Night (9-2) is our top choice. For Pick 5 purposes, we’ll also use the other first-time starter #2 Cowgirltakemeaway (5-2).

Cowgirltakemeaway is trained by Jennifer Tooley. Since 2021, Tooley has gone 0-for-10 saddling first-time starters. But four of those 10 finished second or third, so they tend to be competitive. Encouraging workouts (including a bullet half-mile in :49) suggest Cowgirltakemeaway has some ability and is a threat to win on debut.

Good luck!