Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $124,238 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 24 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to play in carryovers at Aqueduct and Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#6 Save Time (6-5) misfired when trying turf at Saratoga last time out, finishing seventh. But she’d previously cracked the trifecta in four straight maiden special weights on the New York Racing Association circuit. She ran especially well in a 1 1/8-mile contest at Saratoga, finishing second with a 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to dirt at Keeneland should make Save Time tough to beat under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. None of her rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 88.

Let’s bet Save Time on top of an exacta using #5 Vino Frizzante (5-1) and #4 Viable (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Save Time (6-5)
• #5 Vino Frizzante (5-1)
• #4 Viable (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 4,5 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

There’s quite a bit of speed entered in this six-furlong dirt dash, which could compromise morning-line favorite #3 Cupid’s Runaway (8-5) while lending an advantage to stretch-running #7 Do Ya Wanna Dance (5-2).

Do Ya Wanna Dance has won his last two starts sprinting at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including one over Thursday’s class level. If the four-year-old gelding gets a hot pace to chase, he can rally to victory for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Deshawn Parker and Edward Roggenkamp III.

Selections

• #7 Do Ya Wanna Dance (5-2)
• #3 Cupid’s Runaway (8-5)
• #2 Metallic Man (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Do Ya Wanna Dance

Keeneland: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#3 Research Results (8-1) appears capable of outrunning his morning-line odds for trainer Chad Brown. He’s cracked the trifecta in two of his three starts against maiden special weight competition sprinting on turf, most recently placing third at Kentucky Downs.

Brown wins at a 30% rate with horses running long for the first time, so Research Results is eligible to improve and visit the winner’s circle while stretching out in distance under hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Research Results (8-1)
• #9 Rocky Joy (3-1)
• #5 Jungle Law (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Research Results

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $124,239 Pick 6 carryover (1:41 p.m. ET)

Looking for a horse to single in the giant $124,239 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct? Check out #3 Sweet Anniversary (7-5) in race 3, the opening leg of the sequence.

Race 3 is an allowance for New York-bred fillies and mares racing one mile over the main track. These conditions should suit Sweet Anniversary just fine. She’s 2-for-2 running longer than one mile, smashing a non-state-restricted allowance at Finger Lakes by eight lengths before taking a New York-bred allowance over the same track by 11 1/2 lengths.

Some bettors might hesitate to single Sweet Anniversary because she lost her lone start to date on the New York Racing Association circuit, finishing fourth in a New York-bred allowance at Saratoga. But that was a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, and Sweet Anniversary stumbled at the start and wound up racing farther off the early pace than usual. With a clean start, going one mile at Aqueduct should suit Sweet Anniversary just fine, setting the stage for victory.

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,030 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,863 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

Thursday is closing day of the Presque Isle Downs meet, and there are two Pick 5 carryovers for bettors to chase.

The Early Pick 5 boasts a $1,030 prize pool, while the carryover for the Late Pick 5 stands at $1,863.

The two sequences overlap in races 4 and 5, two events that are critical to solve if you want to hit either Pick 5.

Race 4 is a $5,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta. A fiercely competitive 10-horse field has entered, and some bettors may choose to hit the “ALL” button to survive.

But perhaps we can feel comfortable playing only a few horses thanks to the presence of #4 K P All Systems Go (7-2). The seven-year-old gelding is dropping in class out of tougher turf races; two starts back he won a $12,500 claimer at Colonial Downs. If K P All Systems Go handles switching to Tapeta, he’ll have a strong chance to win, so backing him up with a couple of proven Tapeta performers (just in case K P All Systems Go misfires with the surface switch) may prove to be a suitably inexpensive strategy.

As for race 5, it’s a $10,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. We suggest using the two favorites, #6 City Tripper (5-2) and #2 Noble Jon (3-1). They finished in a dead heat for victory in a $6,250 starter allowance over this track and distance earlier this month, each earning a sharp 86 Brisnet Speed rating. In general, they bring good form to the table, and one or the other ought to prevail on Thursday.

Good luck!