Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $27,998 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 17 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $27,998 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 4: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#3 Justifiable Belle (5-2) has been in strong form this year. She won a Keeneland allowance and a Churchill Downs $80,000 allowance optional claimer during the spring, and she recently returned from a four-month layoff to finish second in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Kentucky Downs.

With that comeback effort under her belt, Justifiable Belle has every chance to add another Keeneland allowance win to her career tally. We’ll bet the daughter of Justify to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Justifiable Belle (5-2)
• #7 Nanda Dea (9-2)
• #2 Lucky Speech (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Justifiable Belle
• $10 Double: 3 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (about seven furlongs on dirt, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#3 Uncle Jim (3-1) looks ready to win on debut. He’s a son of City of Light, who sires 14% winners from first-time starters. He’s trained by Brad Cox, a 23% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. And he’s put together a flashy work tab highlighted by five furlongs from the Churchill Downs starting gate in :59 3/5.

Throw in the fact Uncle Jim will be guided by Florent Geroux (a 26% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and this promising two-year-old is worth betting to win and singling to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #3 Uncle Jim (3-1)
• #6 King of Ashes (12-1)
• #5 Copp (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Uncle Jim

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 6 p.m. ET)

#4 Rev’s Muster (20-1) hasn’t shown much in two starts sprinting over this track and class level, finishing 10th and eighth. But those contests unfolded with quick early fractions.

Rev’s Muster may improve meaningfully if he encounters a slower pace while stretching out over one mile. His pedigree suggests the added ground is within reach, and trainer Terry Phillips wins at a 20% rate with horses stretching out in distance off back-to-back sprints, so we’ll place a modest win bet on Rev’s Muster.

Selections

• #4 Rev’s Muster (20-1)
• #1 Gimmel (20-1)
• #7 Sig Forty Five (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Rev’s Muster

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $27,998 Pick 6 carryover (1:41 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct has tossed up a valuable carryover for Thursday’s card. The prize pool stands at $27,998 after no one solved the sequence last Sunday.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Our best recommendation is the four-year-old gelding #10 Confabulation (5-2), the morning-line favorite to win race 6.

Confabulation didn’t show much when debuting in a one-mile $75,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga, finishing a distant sixth over a sloppy track. But he improved sharply when dropping down in class for his second start. Favored to win a 6 1/2-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga, Confabulation raced in second place at every call, ultimately missing victory by a neck.

That narrow defeat yielded an 87 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s the highest number belonging to any horse entered in race 6, a one-mile $20,000 maiden claimer. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 80, so Confabulation has already run plenty fast enough to win a race like this.

There are a couple of other positives in Confabulation’s favor. As a son of Good Magic, Confabulation has the pedigree to shine over one mile. Even though he improved while cutting back in distance for his second start, the class drop was more likely the cause.

Also, Confabulation was claimed out of his second start by Linda Rice, a 22% winner at Aqueduct this meet. Rice wins at a 24% rate with horses making their first start following a claim.

The third time should be the charm for Confabulation. He appears perfectly positioned to secure his first career victory.

Good luck!