Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $33,745 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 10 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of the $33,745 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#9 Itwillbefun (9-2) looms as a logical contender in this maiden special weight for juvenile fillies who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. She debuted with a runner-up finish over this distance and class level at Churchill Downs last month, beaten only a neck while earning an 81 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field.

Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a respectable 15% rate with second-time starters, and a sharp half-mile workout at Churchill last Saturday suggests Itwillbefun can move forward in her second try. At 9-2, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #9 Itwillbefun (9-2)
• #8 Diagram (5-1)
• #3 Autumn Rhythm (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Itwillbefun

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Billy’s Reward (20-1) hopped at the start of his debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level. He subsequently tired to finish a distant sixth.

There are reasons to believe Billy’s Reward can improve in his second start. Stretching out in distance — and presumably encountering a slower pace than in his debut — may help. He’s also adding blinkers, a 17% winning move for trainer Tianna Richardville. Throw in the fact jockey Santo Sanjur wins at a 22% rate in route races, and Billy’s Reward offers appeal at his 20-1 morning-line odds.

A modest win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #4 Billy’s Reward (20-1)
• #5 Lookin for Glory (7-5)
• #2 Motion to Adjourn (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Billy’s Reward

Keeneland: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#5 Geez Eloise (8-1) never fired in her debut sprinting at Ellis Park, finishing seventh. But she improved in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month, rallying from midfield to finish third by 1 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a respectable 18% rate with horses stretching out in distance off back-to-back sprints, so don’t be surprised if Geez Eloise moves forward in her route debut. At 8-1, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 Geez Eloise (8-1)
• #13 Margot’s Angel (3-1)
• #10 Dawn After Dawn (7-2)
• #9 Stylet (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Geez Eloise

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $33,745 Pick 6 carryover (1:41 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Aqueduct kicks off on Thursday with a $33,745 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

A challenging sequence is on the agenda. Every race in the Pick 6 has drawn at least eight horses, and there are many also-eligible and main-track-only entrants in the mix. Before scratches there are 72 horses (averaging 12 per race) and 2,396,160 possible outcomes to analyze. Those numbers will drop meaningfully once scratches come in, but even still this is an imposing Pick 6 to handicap.

Some bettors will aim to simplify the sequence by singling #6 Brown Suga Babe (7-5) in race 3, the opening leg of the Pick 6. Race 3 is a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares racing 1 1/8 miles on dirt, and with only eight horses in the entries, it features the smallest field in the Pick 6 before scratches.

The form of Brown Suga Babe is appealing at first glance. She’s won her last two starts by daylight margins, wiring a $25,000 starter optional claimer at Parx Racing by 4 3/4 lengths before rallying up the rail to win a New York-bred allowance at Aqueduct by 6 1/4 lengths. Those victories respectively yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 95 and 82.

Here’s the problem: Brown Suga Babe benefited from a rail bias in her Aqueduct allowance win, and there’s no guarantee she’ll run as well over a (presumably) fair track on Thursday. In fact, there’s a chance she’ll regress, opening the door for #2 Call Her Bluff (5-2) to spring a mild surprise.

Call Her Bluff faltered in the Fleet Indian S. for New York-breds at Saratoga last time out, finishing fourth. But she’d previously rattled off four straight victories. At Aqueduct, she won a maiden special weight for New York-breds, a $40,000 claimer, and a $35,000 starter optional claimer. Then at Saratoga, she beat New York-breds in an allowance.

Call Her Bluff has been getting faster, posting improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 87 in her last two starts. If Brown Suga Babe does regress, then Call Her Bluff is poised to take advantage and snatch first prize at a better price.

Bettors with large budgets might want to include both Call Her Bluff and Brown Suga Babe on their Pick 6 tickets. But if you want a single for race 3, we give the edge to Call Her Bluff.

Good luck!