Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $49,758 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 31 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a single for Aqueduct’s $49,758 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll ($50) during the duration of the $100 Churchill Downs Feeder tournament on Thursday to receive 25% cash back (maximum $12.50).
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

#2 Hop Sing (3-1) debuted last December at Aqueduct. Racing over a strongly speed-favoring track, Hop Sing did well to rally from eighth place and finish second with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

Hop Sing hasn’t run since, but the son of Curlin has posted a few bullet workouts this year and is eligible to fire a strong shot if he catches a fair track in his return. It’s worth noting trainer Jose D’Angelo wins at a respectable 15% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll also play Hop Sing over #3 Top Gun Rocket (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Hop Sing (3-1)
• #3 Top Gun Rocket (5-2)
• #6 I’m McDreamy (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 Hop Sing
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#9 Wicked Vette (8-5) is a logical favorite after finishing a pacesetting second in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level. But don’t underestimate #7 G Force Jimmi (10-1) as an upset threat.

G Force Jimmi is an unraced filly from the barn of Anthony Cunningham, a 30% winner with first-time starters. A bullet three-furlong workout at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month suggests G Force Jimmi has some talent, so a competitive debut at double-digit odds is within reach.

Let’s take a shot at betting G Force Jimmi to win and keying her over Wicked Vette in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 G Force Jimmi (10-1)
• #9 Wicked Vette (8-5)
• #4 Sakra’s Quest (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 G Force Jimmi
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 9
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 10: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 5:24 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a modest 12% rate with all first-time starters. But his success rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers jumps to 16%.

This is reason enough to support #9 Joyful Pursuit (12-1). The unraced filly is meeting a seemingly unremarkable field and is slated to be ridden by Keith Asmussen, a 22% winner teaming up with Steve Asmussen over the last two months. A respectable work tab cements Joyful Pursuit as a viable win candidate at enticing odds.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #9 Joyful Pursuit (12-1)
• #2 Max’s Redemption (2-1)
• #1 La Bukana (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Joyful Pursuit

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $49,758 Pick 6 carryover (1:41 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct has been tossing up carryovers left and right lately. The wager went unsolved again last Sunday, yielding a $49,758 prize pool for Thursday’s card.

A competitive sequence is on the agenda, but bettors searching for a single to build tickets around have a viable option in race 5, a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, morning-line favorite #9 Nilo’s Rose (6-5) has the experienced runners in this field measured. She debuted over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 28 and showed tactical speed before gaining ground late to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths. Nilo’s Rose pulled 5 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned an excellent 84 Brisnet Speed rating. None of her Thursday rivals have posted a number higher than 79.

There isn’t much speed entered in race 5, so Nilo’s Rose figures to enjoy a perfect trip. Only one horse, #5 Mrs. Manicotti (8-1), has ever set the pace. Assuming Mrs. Manicotti leads again on Thursday, Nilo’s Rose can track the tempo in second place before taking over in the homestretch.

Now, bettors with big budgets may wish to back up Nilo’s Rose with #8 Take Me to Londyn (9-2), a first-time starter from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox. He has been formidable at Aqueduct this meet, going 12-for-32 (38%), and his win percentage with first-time starters stands at a lofty 22%.

But Take Me to Londyn hasn’t put together a flashy work tab. In fact, her workouts have mostly been on the slow side. She’s debuting for a $50,000 claiming tag and might not be one of Cox’s ready-to-win first-time starters, so bettors in search of a single can feel reasonably confident standing alone with Nilo’s Rose.

Good luck!