Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $51,725 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 14 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $51,725 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#3 Talent Show (5-2) has turned in notable workouts at Turfway Park, including half a mile in :47 3/5 on Nov. 2 and the same distance in :47 4/5 last Friday. The unraced daughter of Maximum Security looks talented enough to win first-time out for trainer Brad Cox, a 19% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Let’s bet Talent Show to win and play her over #5 Blue Dazzler (5-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #3 Talent Show (5-2)
• #5 Blue Dazzler (5-1)
• #6 Sweet Star (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Talent Show
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:57 p.m. ET)

Unraced #5 Redacted (5-1) hails from the barn of Dallas Stewart, who has compiled an excellent 29-7-6-1 (24%) record debuting juveniles on dirt at Churchill Downs since 2021.

Redacted enters off a fast five-furlong workout in :59 4/5 at Churchill Downs and has every chance to shine under jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has won more races at Churchill than any other rider this year. At 5-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Redacted (5-1)
• #8 Very Bold (7-2)
• #10 Baby Max (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Redacted

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Indiana Futurity (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 5:18 p.m. ET)

#3 Slam Dunk Justice (8-1) has been slowly but steadily improving. He’s lost to many of the rivals he’ll face in the Indiana Futurity, but his last two defeats—a third in the Circle City S. and a second in the Crown Ambassador S.—came by modest margins of 1 1/4 lengths and a head.

Those two races took place over six furlongs. Stretching out over one mile and 70 yards for the Indiana Futurity may allow Slam Dunk Justice to turn the tables on his past conquerors. His pedigree suggests he’ll only improve while stretching out in trip.

Let’s keep things simple with a win bet on Slam Dunk Justice.

Selections

• #3 Slam Dunk Justice (8-1)
• #5 Large Pour (2-1)
• #7 Jazzole (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Slam Dunk Justice

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $51,725 Pick 6 carryover (1:10 p.m. ET)

Good news! If you’ve been eyeing Thursday’s $51,725 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct, searching for a single to build tickets around, you’ll be happy to hear there’s a solid opportunity in the first leg of the sequence. And the horse in question isn’t even favored.

The $1 wager gets underway in Race 3, a $16,000 starter allowance taking place over one mile on dirt. An eight-horse field has turned out, and some bettors will doubtlessly be drawn to morning line favorite #8 Smile Mon (9-5). The four-year-old gelding has used his early speed to win back-to-back $16,000 and $25,000 claimers racing one mile at Aqueduct by margins of 8 3/4 lengths and 6 3/4 lengths.

Those were fine efforts, but the resulting Brisnet Speed ratings—88 and 86—don’t stand out in this $16,000 starter allowance. In fact, #7 Winnin’onweekends (5-2) has run faster in each of his last three starts, earning improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 91, 92, and 95.

Winnin’onweekends has been in ascendant form since being claimed during the spring. His first start for new trainer Jack Abrams wasn’t great, but Winnin’onweekends subsequently rattled off three straight victories at Parx Racing, including one in a $25,000 starter allowance.

Winnin’onweekends has lost his last two starts, but both were good tries. In a $20,000 starter optional claimer at Parx, he finished second by three-quarters of a length. Then in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct, Winnin’onweekends battled to take runner-up honors by 1 3/4 lengths.

Dropping in class for a $16,000 starter allowance can send Winnin’onweekends back to the winner’s circle. None of his Race 3 rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 91, so if Winnin’onweekends produces his typical effort, he’ll be tough to beat. Hence his ranking as a viable yet non-favored single to start the Pick 6.

Good luck!