Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $83,911 Pick 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 3, at Delaware Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Charles Town, along with horses to play in Aqueduct’s $83,911 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Heylookmeover (5-1) debuted with a fifth-place finish in a maiden special weight sprinting about five furlongs over the Delaware Park turf course, earning a 62 Brisnet Speed rating that fits well against Thursday’s field.

Trainer McLean Robertson wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters, and at a 21% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so trainer stats suggest Heylookmeover has a strong shot to succeed on Thursday. Throw in the fact her pedigree offers potential for success on dirt, and a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Heylookmeover (5-1)
• #7 Sparkling Ruby (8-5)
• #3 Power Driver (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Heylookmeover

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 Superwolf (10-1) finished second by 3 1/4 lengths to Fortissimo when debuting in the Best of Ohio Cleveland Kindergarten S. against Ohio-breds at Thistledown. Fortissimo is a two-time stakes winner currently undefeated in four starts, so it’s safe to say Superwolf ran well against a talented rival.

Superwolf subsequently wired a six-furlong maiden special weight for Ohio-breds at Thistledown by 13 lengths, earning a powerful 90 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s easily the highest number belonging to any horse in Thursday’s field, so Superwolf is an upset threat even while stepping outside the Ohio-bred ranks.

#1 Shan (4-5) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Superwolf (10-1)
• #1 Shan (4-5)
• #8 Trew Violence (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Superwolf
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Charles Town: Race 8: $5,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 10:17 p.m. ET)

#1 Breaking Rules (8-5) was much the best when making her Charles Town debut in a $5,000 maiden claimer sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs last month. She opened up a 3 1/2-length early lead and never looked back on her way to a seven-length victory, earning a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 70, so Breaking Rules is already fast enough to beat this caliber of competition. Throw in the fact pacesetters and rail runners have respectively won 67% and 20% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this year, and Breaking Rules appears poised to dominate her second local start.

We’ll keep things simple with a large win bet.

Selections

• #1 Breaking Rules (8-5)
• #7 Bali Hai (6-1)
• #6 Bobbi Two Steps (4-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #1 Breaking Rules

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $83,911 Pick 6 carryover (1:42 p.m. ET)

The $83,911 carryover in Aqueduct’s $1 Pick 6 was supposed to be up for grabs last Sunday. But one of the Pick 6 legs — the Miss Grillo (G2) — was postponed by one week due to rain, so Pick 6 wagering was canceled and the carryover instead moved to Thursday’s card.

Thursday’s Pick 6 looks challenging to decipher. All six races have drawn eight or more horses, and there are many also-eligible entrants. Even excluding the also-eligibles from consideration, there are 712,800 possible Pick 6 outcomes.

It’s difficult to find a single in a sequence this tricky, but we’ll give it a shot with #2 First Glimpse (7-2) in race 3, a $16,000 claimer taking place over one mile on dirt.

First Glimpse has been competing well against tougher competition. In his last four dirt starts, he’s finished first in a one-mile $32,000 claimer at Aqueduct, third in a one-mile $40,000 claimer at Aqueduct, fourth in a 1 1/8-mile $32,000 claimer at Saratoga, and fourth in a one-mile $25,000 claimer at Aqueduct. Those efforts yielded solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 86, 80, 81, and 88.

Dropping down into a $16,000 claimer should make First Glimpse tough to beat. One of his key rivals, morning-line favorite #6 Giroovin, owns similar Brisnet Speed ratings but is 0-for-6 racing one mile. First Glimpse appears to be meaningfully better-suited to Thursday’s distance, which is why we’re willing to take a stand and single him in the Pick 6.

We’ll also take a moment to highlight #2 Take Me To Church (5-1) as a horse worth using in race 7, the $135,000 Gio Ponti S. for three-year-olds racing one mile on turf.

Formerly based in Ireland, where he ran fifth in this year’s Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1), Take Me To Church made his U.S. debut in the Aug. 30 Saranac (G3) racing 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga grass. He was right in contention with a furlong remaining, but unfortunately become one of two horses involved in a spill. He’s bounced back with a couple of half-mile workouts and has every chance to factor with an unencumbered trip for trainer Brad Cox, who has gone 7-for-15 (47%) at Aqueduct this meet.

Good luck!