Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill Downs opening day

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with a single for Hawthorne’s $3,753 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Hawthorne Race Course $1,400 Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ single-horse win bets at Hawthorne on Thursday to earn points and compete for your share of a $1,400 prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#5 Underdressed (6-1) has spent much of his career competing on turf and synthetic. But he’s also gone 3-for-4 over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt, most recently dominating a $25,000 claimer by 8 3/4 lengths.

Last October, Underdressed won a $40,000 allowance optional claimer over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track with a flashy 93 Brisnet Speed rating. That makes him faster than morning-line favorite #6 Goodlookinjustice (5-2), who has achieved all of his wins in sprints.

At 6-1, Underdressed is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 Underdressed (6-1)
• #6 Goodlookinjustice (5-2)
• #8 Woodcourt (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Underdressed

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#5 Perfect Force (8-1) has made his first three starts against maiden special weight competition, including a pair of respectable efforts during the prestigious Saratoga meet. On July 20, Perfect Force finished third behind future Hopeful (G1) third-place finisher Incentive Pay and next-out maiden winner Dapper Moon.

If Perfect Force catches an easier field at Churchill Downs, he may be able to break through with a victory. Let’s bet him to win and play him in the exacta with #9 El Prestigio (7-2).

Selections

• #5 Perfect Force (8-1)
• #9 El Prestigio (7-2)
• #3 Free Country (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #5 Perfect Force
• $7 Exacta: 9 with 5
• $3 Exacta: 5 with 9
  Total: $20

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 8:23 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer Philip Bauer has gone 3-for-3 (100%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Churchill Downs. This stat suggests #11 Kalahari Dreams (6-1) is overpriced at his morning-line odds.

Kalahari Dreams has put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Country House isn’t facing the toughest field on paper and should have every chance to deliver a winning debut.

Selections

• #11 Kalahari Dreams (6-1)
• #12 Sir Gallivant (5-1)
• #1 Furio (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Kalahari Dreams

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 1: $3,753 Pick 5 carryover (3:10 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Hawthorne is starting off on a high note with a non-jackpot $3,753 carryover in the Early Pick 5.

There’s a lot to like about the 50-cent wager. It features a relatively low 17% takeout rate and pays out 20% of the pool as consolation to tickets with four of five winners.

Thursday’s sequence should be manageable to hit without breaking the bank. The five races have drawn only 33 horses in total (averaging 6.6 per race), which works out to 12,096 possible outcomes. And we can chop that number down to 1,728 just by singling #7 Laly (8-5) in race 4, a maiden special weight for Illinois-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Laly has run well in her last two attempts over this track and class level. On June 1, she carved out the pace before weakening to finish second by one length. Then, following a misfire against non-state-restricted competition, Laly set the pace in a July 11 contest before battling to finish second by a nose.

Those runner-up finishes yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 69, both of which match or exceed the par winning number (69) for Thursday’s conditions at Hawthorne. Just as importantly, those ratings are much better than the ones belonging to Laly’s rivals — the six horses she’ll face on Thursday have yet to earn a number higher than 65.

In other words, a typical performance from Laly should be more than sufficient to visit the winner’s circle, hence her ranking as a viable Pick 5 single.

Good luck!