Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial Downs win plays

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 1 at Colonial Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $1,395 Super High 5 carryover at Hawthorne.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:38 p.m. ET)

#9 Fear the Facts (9-2) has cracked the trifecta in two of her three starts against maiden special weight competition on turf, including when third by a neck in a five-furlong contest on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park.

Dropping in class and switching to turf can yield victory for Fear the Facts. She’s a daughter of The Factor, who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time turf starters, and her dam is Lilbourne Eliza, whose two winning foals to date have both secured victories on turf. Lilbourne Eliza herself was good enough to win the Wasted Tears S. on turf.

Throw in the fact Fear the Facts is picking up hot jockey Ben Curtis (a 26% winner at Colonial Downs this meet), and a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #9 Fear the Facts (9-2)
• #3 Chado (3-1)
• #6 Prinsipito (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Fear the Facts

Colonial Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Christophe Clement has gone 5-for-11 (45%) at Colonial Downs in recent years, so it pays to sit up and take notice when Clement ships a horse to this track.

That’s why we’re willing to bet Clement’s unraced juvenile #6 Patrick’s Promise (8-1). The son of Tonalist has the pedigree to handle one mile and got a grass workout under his belt over the Saratoga turf training track, so at 8-1 Patrick’s Promise is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #6 Patrick’s Promise (8-1)
• #8 Tony Eclipse (3-1)
• #2 The Brigade (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Patrick’s Promise

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#1 Boss of All Bosses (3-1) never factored in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, finishing a distant eighth. But he improved when tackling an off-the-turf maiden special weight racing one mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis, vying for command throughout to finish second by a neck.

As a son of Street Boss (who sires 14% winners on turf) out of Tensas Salt (who has foaled two stakes winners, including accomplished grass runner Is Too), Boss of All Bosses has the breeding to shine on turf. Switching surfaces may trigger a winning run under jockey Samuel Bermudez, who has won at a 31% rate teaming up with trainer Mike Maker over the last two months.

Let’s bet Boss of All Bosses to win, then play him with the well-bred first-time starter #5 Siesta Key (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Boss of All Bosses (3-1)
• #5 Siesta Key (2-1)
• #4 Ethics (12-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #1 Boss of All Bosses
• $6 Exacta: 5 with 1
• $3 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 9: $1,395 Super High 5 carryover (6:54 p.m. ET)

The highlight of Thursday’s card at Hawthorne is a $1,395 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, a 7 1/2-furlong grass allowance for fillies and mares. A large field has turned out—11 horses in the main body of the field, plus one main-track-only entrant. Assuming the race stays on turf, there will be 55,440 possible outcomes to analyze.

Most of the entrants are local runners who compete primarily at Hawthorne. But one notable exception is #11 Spicy Italian (9-2). While three of her eight career starts have come at Hawthorne, including her lone victory in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight, it’s worth noting all three of those were dirt races. And there’s a chance Spicy Italian is better on turf.

Technically, Spicy Italian hasn’t been competitive in her two turf starts to date. But both of those came in allowances against tougher competition at Churchill Downs. Last September, she closed some ground to finish sixth (beaten only 3 3/4 lengths) in a one-mile heat. Then in November, she raced in midfield before tiring to finish 10th in a 1 1/16-mile contest.

Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 74, which stack up well against Thursday’s field. They also fit well against the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions (79). So it’s easy to envision Spicy Italian producing a winning run over the Hawthorne turf course, where she’ll be ridden by hot jockey Alexis Centeno, a 20% winner at Hawthorne this meet.

There’s one other stat in Spicy Italian’s favor—she recently kicked off 2024 with a fourth-place finish in a dirt allowance at Hawthorne, and red-hot trainer Wayne Catalano (a 33% winner at Hawthorne this meet) wins at a 20% rate with horses switching from dirt to turf.

For all these reasons, we view Spicy Italian as a serious win threat. In fact, we recommend taking a stand and keying her on top while emphasizing horses like #2 Boltoro (5-1), #3 Get N Tipsy (6-1), #8 Church Pew (15-1), #9 Command Point (10-1), and #10 R Katiebug (4-1) underneath.

• $1 Super High 5: 11 with 2 with 3,9,10 with 3,8,9,10 with 3,8,9,10 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 11 with 3,9,10 with 2 with 3,8,9,10 with 3,8,9,10 ($18)
  Total: $36

Good luck!