Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Dapper Moon can win with class drop

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 19 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including horses to bet in Turfway’s $7,407 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#3 South Bend Tom (8-5) exits a third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, for which he earned a 76 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field by nine points.

South Bend Tom is adding Lasix for his second start and should be tough to beat while tackling a $50,000 maiden optional claimer. Let’s place a large win bet on South Bend Tom, then add a small exacta using #2 Royal Coach (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #3 South Bend Tom (8-5)
• #2 Royal Coach (9-2)
• #6 Reignite (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 South Bend Tom
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Dapper Moon (3-5) has run respectably in a quartet of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers, finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Street Sense (G3), and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Now he’s tackling an allowance sprint for Louisiana-breds.

Dapper Moon is clearly the fastest horse in this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so the stage is set for an easy victory. #2 Hesper (6-1), who beat a next-out winner when debuting with victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Dapper Moon (3-5)
• #2 Hesper (6-1)
• #3 Hawija (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 Exacta: 4 with 2

Turfway Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#2 D Bigalow (8-5) has finished third and second in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition on the Kentucky circuit. Those efforts earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 80, easily the two highest numbers among the experienced runners in Thursday’s field.

#7 Ride of a Lifetime (8-1), a first-time starter from the hot barn of Christopher Davis, has a chance to round out the exacta. But our primary play will be a win bet on D Bigalow.

Selections

• #2 D Bigalow (8-5)
• #7 Ride of a Lifetime (8-1)
• #1 Chunk of Gold (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 D Bigalow
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 9: $7,407 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park has gone unsolved for three straight racing days, triggering a triple carryover worth $7,407 into Thursday’s card.

What makes Turfway’s Super High 5 so hard to hit? Large and competitive fields. Thursday is a perfect example—the carryover is up for grabs in Race 9, a six-furlong $7,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. An overflow field of 14 horses has entered, and assuming a dozen start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

One of the reasons the Super High 5 went unsolved on Wednesday was the runner-up finish of 37-1 longshot G’day Lady, a horse we recommended betting. G’day Lady shipped in off a series of efforts over the dirt track at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt form often translates to success over Turfway’s Tapeta track.

Four horses in Thursday’s field match that angle. Any of them are eligible to factor for top-five finishes. They are:

#4 C F V Tu Brutus (30-1): Granted, C F V Tu Brutus has been running poorly for the most part. But many of her recent efforts have been route races. Two starts back she finished sixth by 6 3/4 lengths in a 5 1/2-furlong $5,000 claimer for Indiana-breds at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which was arguably her best effort since last winter, when she rallied to finish second in a six-furlong $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races at Turfway Park. C F V Tu Brutus hasn’t missed the trifecta in two starts at Turfway, and returning to this surface may trigger a form turnaround.

#5 Fair Folly (20-1): Fair Folly is in fine form, having rallied from out of the clouds to win an Indiana-bred $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. She’s cracked the top five in two of her three starts at Turfway (including in a $30,000 claimer for non-winners of two races), so Fair Folly’s Tapeta form is encouraging enough to suggest she can outrun expectations in her return to this oval.

#8 Chimes (12-1): Chimes has shown at least a little spark in recent starts sprinting against Indiana-breds at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing fifth in an allowance and in a $12,500 allowance optional claimer. She’s never run at Turfway before, or over any synthetic track for that matter, so there’s a chance Chimes will improve meaningfully while switching surfaces under hot jockey Irving Moncada.

#11 Taking Charge Desi (6-1): Another entrant tackling Turfway for the first time is Taking Charge Desi, from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. During the summer at Horseshoe Indianapolis, she cracked the trifecta in three straight $5,000 claimers, earning encouraging Brisnet Speed ratings of 72, 67, and 67. Any improvement while trying Tapeta can put Taking Charge Desi in the hunt for victory.

Good luck!