Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Del Mar’s $144,919 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 25 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Del Mar, along with horses to play in Pick 6 carryovers at Colonial Downs and Del Mar.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Melanie Giddings has compiled a respectable 5-1-1-1 (20% wins, 60% in the money) record saddling first-time starters on the New York Racing Association circuit this year. The one winner, Your Man Alex, debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Aqueduct and rallied to victory at 32-1.

Perhaps #1 Musical Cue (6-1) can emulate Your Man Alex while debuting over the Saratoga turf. A daughter of Maclean’s Music (who sires a respectable 14% winners on turf), Musical Cue has put together a nice work tab including half a mile from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in :48 4/5. At 6-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Musical Cue (6-1)
• #2 Second Chance (4-1)
• #10 Miss C Banker (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Musical Cue

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:02 p.m. ET)

Unraced two-year-old #6 Scotch Chocolate (5-2), a son of juvenile Grade 1 winner McKinzie, has shown speed in the mornings for trainer Tom Amoss. On June 18, he breezed half a mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5. One week later, he clocked five furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in a bullet 1:00 4/5.

Amoss wins at an 18% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, cementing Scotch Chocolate as a logical favorite. We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on the bay colt.

Selections

• #6 Scotch Chocolate (5-2)
• #4 Missed the Turn (4-1)
• #2 Rio Chama (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Scotch Chocolate

Del Mar: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 5:33 p.m. ET)

#2 Giant Luther (8-1) finished six lengths behind the more experienced #7 El Ondeado (4-1) when debuting over this distance and class level at Los Alamitos three weeks ago. But trainer Peter Miller's win rate with first-time starters (9% since 2021) improves to 24% with second-time starters, so Giant Luther is eligible to move forward in a big way off his debut.

Let’s take a shot betting Giant Luther to win and keying him over #1 Mr. Machupicchu (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Giant Luther (8-1)
• #1 Mr. Machupicchu (3-1)
• #7 El Ondeado (4-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Giant Luther
• $4 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $3,236 Pick 6 carryover (3:37 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Colonial Downs kicks off on Thursday with a $3,236 carryover on the table in the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, which features a modest 15% takeout rate.

The first leg of the sequence is Race 5, a $40,000 maiden claimer for Virginia-restricted two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the outer turf course. Eight of the 10 horses in the main body of the field are first-time starters who don’t appear especially likely to win on debut, which makes the experienced #1 Buoyant (5-2) the horse to beat.

Buoyant debuted in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Pimlico. After tracking the pace in second place, he weakened a bit to finish fifth in a nine-horse field.

Buoyant is trained by Brittany Russell, who has gone 4-for-6 (67%) at Colonial Downs this meet. Russell wins at a lofty 33% rate with second-time starters, so Buoyant is eligible to improve while adding blinkers for his second try. Throw in the fact he’ll be ridden by Jevian Toledo, who has gone 3-for-3 teaming up with Russell over the last two months, and Buoyant is a logical Pick 6 single.

Del Mar: Race 3: $144,919 Pick 6 carryover (6:04 p.m. ET)

You can bet that handicappers will flock to play Thursday’s $144,919 Pick 6 carryover at Del Mar. The final pool for the $1 wager figures to be huge.

The feature event in the sequence is Race 7, the $100,000 Cougar II (G3) taking place over 1 1/2 miles on dirt. Some bettors may single #4 Salesman (8-5), who romped by 8 1/4 lengths in the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) at Santa Anita last fall. But Salesman completely misfired in his lone start since then, finishing last of seven in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita H. (G1) on March 3, and stretching back out in distance off a 4 1/2-month layoff could be a question mark.

That’s why we prefer the chances of #3 Reincarnate (9-5). Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Reincarnate finished third in the Santa Anita H. and more recently ran a pacesetting second in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G2).

Reincarnate has kept good company throughout his career and enters the Cougar II off strong workouts, including a swift half-mile in :46 3/5 at Del Mar. Reincarnate has tactical speed, but has long given the impression of being a grinder who will relish stretching out over 1 1/2 miles. Pick 6 bettors with large budgets might want to include Salesman for safety purposes, but Reincarnate looks ready to upset the slight morning line favorite, and if you can only use one horse we recommend you choose Reincarnate.

Good luck!