Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Exculpate can win again

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 5, at Colonial Downs, Kentucky Downs, and Del Mar, including non-favored horses to use in Colonial’s $3,549 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Kentucky Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Kentucky Downs from Aug. 29 through Sept. 11.
• Hawthorne Race Course $1,400 Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ single-horse win bets at Hawthorne on Thursday to earn points and compete for your share of a $1,400 prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Life’s Illusion S. (2 1/4 miles over national fences on turf, 12:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Exculpate (5-1) has gone 2-for-2 competing over fences at Colonial Downs this summer. After wiring a 2 1/4-mile maiden special weight by three lengths, the five-year-old mare led by daylight at every call of the 2 1/4-mile Randolph D. Rouse Memorial S. to dominate by 15 1/2 lengths.

Exculpate’s Randolph D. Rouse victory came at the expensive of #1 Haint Blue (1-1), the morning-line favorite to take the Life’s Illusion. Haint Blue has defeated Exculpate in the past, but we’re willing to bet Exculpate can maintain her current red-hot form and spring a mild surprise.

Selections

• #7 Exculpate (5-1)
• #1 Haint Blue (1-1)
• #6 My Forever Annie (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Exculpate

Kentucky Downs: Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (1 5/16 miles on turf, 6:24 p.m. ET)

#1 Mo Chat (6-1) made a late rally after a hopping start to finish third by three lengths in her debut racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. There are reasons to believe she can improve in her second start.

For example, trainer Jonathan Thomas wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters and at a 28% rate with horses racing on grass for the first time. As a daughter of Uncle Mo out of the Dynaformer mare Chat, Mo Chat is bred to thrive while stretching out over 1 5/16 miles. Also important, all four of Mo Chat’s winning foals to date have scored victories on turf.

At 6-1, Mo Chat is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #1 Mo Chat (6-1)
• #5 Public Assembly (6-1)
• #2 Ms Sedona (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Mo Chat

Del Mar: Race 7: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 7:38 p.m. ET)

#12 Solo Gano (12-1) didn’t show much when debuting in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight sprinting five furlongs over the Del Mar turf course, trailing throughout to finish ninth by 10 1/2 lengths. But a slow start and a modest early pace didn’t help his chances.

Solo Gano has the pedigree to improve while switching to dirt, and dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer for California-breds should also help him challenge. Trainer Luis Mendez wins at a lofty 28% rate with horses entering the maiden claiming ranks for the first time.

We’ll keep our win bet theme rolling with a $20 ticket on Solo Gano.

Selections

• #12 Solo Gano (12-1)
• #8 Winds of Freedom (3-1)
• #3 Pax a Punch (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Solo Gano

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 7: $3,549 Pick 6 carryover (3:09 p.m. ET)

Looking for price horses to include on your tickets for Thursday’s $3,549 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of non-favored runners worth using:

Race 8: #10 Cachinnation (5-1)

The second leg of the Pick 6 is a maiden special weight for two-year-olds racing one mile on turf. These conditions may prove ideal for Cachinnation, a first-time starter from the barn of Arnaud Delacour. Since 2021, Delacour has gone 3-for-9 (33%) debuting juveniles in turf routes at Colonial Downs.

Cachinnation breezed a bullet half-mile over the all-weather training track at Fair Hill in :49 2/5 last month, so she appears to have some talent. The fact she’ll be ridden by hot jockey Victor Carrasco adds to the appeal; Carrasco is a 24% winner at Colonial Downs this meet and a 26% winner teaming up with Delacour over the last two months. Don’t be surprised if Cachinnation visits the winner’s circle on debut.

Race 11: #6 Thursday Girl (5-1)

Race 11 is a $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The one-mile turf test has drawn 10 entries, and co-third choice Thursday Girl is a must-use contender.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Thursday Girl because she’s finished fifth by wide margins in both of her starts running one mile. But those races took place on dirt, and Thursday Girl’s four starts on dirt and synthetic — whether sprinting or running long — have resulted in defeats by double-digit margins.

In contrast, Thursday Girl has excelled on turf. In the 5 1/2-furlong Jamestown S. at Colonial Downs last year, she tracked the pace on her way to third place. And in a state-restricted $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Colonial lawn last month, Thursday Girl charged from a couple of lengths off the pace to win by 1 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 73 Brisnet Speed rating.

It appears Thursday Girl is vastly superior on turf than dirt or synthetic, so it’s possible racing one mile on turf will be within her wheelhouse. Sire Speightster won the one-mile Dwyer (G3) and dam Souper Miss took the 1 1/16-mile Peach of It H., so Thursday Girl’s pedigree suggests longer distances should be manageable. Plus, she’s conditioned by hot trainer Phil Schoenthal, a 29% winner at Colonial Downs this meet and a 24% winner with horses transitioning from sprints to routes.

Throw in the fact Thursday Girl will be ridden by hot jockey Victor Carrasco (a 24% winner at Colonial Downs this meet), and she looks like a must-use Pick 6 runner. We also recommend betting her to win:

• $20 to win on #6 Thursday Girl

Good luck!