Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Fair Grounds Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 12 at Fair Grounds, Turf Paradise, and Turfway Park, including a single for the $1,819 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#2 De’ Ans Eighty (9-5) recently misfired in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance over the bullring track at Delta Downs, finishing fourth. But her previous four starts over full-sized ovals at Oaklawn Park, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs were strong; she hit the board in a series of starter allowances while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 82, 84, 82, and 84.

De’ Ans Eighty has every chance to bring her A game to Fair Grounds, where she boasts two wins and two seconds from five starts. #6 Sally’s Surprise (7-2) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 De’ Ans Eighty (9-5)
• #6 Sally’s Surprise (7-2)
• #1 Splenda Gail (4-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 De’ Ans Eighty
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 4: Glendale S. (one mile on dirt, 4:03 p.m. ET)

The fastest entrant in this stakes for fillies and mares is #6 Big Hug (6-1), at least as far as Brisnet Speed ratings are concerned. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a Speed rating higher than 88, Big Hug has posted numbers in the 91-95 range in three of her last five starts.

Big Hug enters off back-to-back stakes wins at Century Downs and has a strong chance to outrun her odds at Turf Paradise. Let’s box her in the exacta with Southern California raider #4 Don’t Bring Crazy (5-2).

Selections

• #6 Big Hug (6-1)
• #4 Don’t Bring Crazy (5-2)
• #1 Jamies Inheritance (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: box 4,6 ($30)

Turfway Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Brad Cox has gone 5-for-16 (31%) debuting three-year-olds in sprints at Turfway Park. This bodes well for the chances of Cox’s #8 Inherit (3-1), an unraced daughter of champion Bernardini and a half-sister to graded stakes winners Uncle Chuck, Electric Forest, and Kentuckian.

Inherit has put together a sharp work tab at Turfway Park, highlighted by a bullet five furlongs in 1:00. Jockey Florent Geroux (26% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) is named to ride, so a win bet on Inherit is in order.

Selections

• #8 Inherit (3-1)
• #1 Sang (5-1)
• #10 Out too Late (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Inherit

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 5: $1,819 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds last Sunday, so when racing at the New Orleans oval resumes on Thursday, bettors will have a $1,819 Pick 6 carryover available to chase.

The Pick 6 spans Race 5 through Race 10, a sequence containing 51 horses and 332,640 possible outcomes before scratches.

You can slice the number of outcomes to consider down to 55,440 just by singling morning-line favorite #5 Fine Finish (9-5) in Race 9, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for two-year-old fillies. Fine Finish is facing only five rivals and should be tough to beat while racing about 1 1/16 miles over the Fair Grounds turf course.

Fine Finish has shown versatility for trainer Bret Calhoun. She debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong dirt sprint at Lone Star Park, which she rallied to win by three-quarters of a length with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating. Then, following a 4 1/2-month layoff, Fine Finish stretched out for a pair of turf allowances running long on the Kentucky circuit.

Fine Finish started off in a one-mile contest at Keeneland, and while her seventh-place finish was uninspiring at first glance, she was only beaten three lengths while gaining ground into quick closing fractions. It wasn’t a bad effort off the layoff, and she earned a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Fine Finish fared better when tackling 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. Given a quicker pace to chase, she rallied nicely to finish second by 3 1/2 lengths with an 85 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s a notable number since none of the rivals Fine Finish is facing at Fair Grounds have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82.

Unless the Grade 1-experienced #1 Pondering (5-2) improves in her turf debut, Fine Finish shouldn’t have much trouble securing her second career victory. It helps that she’ll be guided by red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz, who has gone 22-for-51 (43%) at Fair Grounds this meet.

For all these reasons, we recommend singling Fine Finish in the penultimate leg of the Pick 6. Good luck!