Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Gulfstream’s $121,788 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 18 at Aqueduct and Charles Town, along with a ticket for the $121,788 Pick 5 carryover at Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursdays in April to win your share of a $1,000 daily jackpot.
• Keeneland Double Down: Hit two double wagers in a single day at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (up to 50% per day) on all winning double wagers for the day, every Wednesday through Friday in April.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 4: $16,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Dads Good Runner (5-1) endured a wide trip when finishing fifth in a $14,000 claimer racing a mile at Aqueduct on April 7. That was a day when racing inside appeared advantageous.

Three starts back, Dads Good Runner finished second by less than one length in a $16,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct. He’ll return to those conditions on Thursday and should be able to work out a ground-saving trip while breaking from the rail, setting the stage for a rebound.

Let’s bet Dads Good Runner to win.

Selections

• #2 Dads Good Runner (5-1)
• #7 Quick Hammer (9-2)
• #1A G Munning (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Dads Good Runner

Charles Town: Race 2: $15,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 63% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this year, and horses breaking from the three innermost post positions have held an advantage over horses drawn wider.

These stats point to #2 Juba’s Punch (4-1) as a key win threat. She’s led by daylight at every call to win her last two starts over this track and distance by margins of 7 1/2 lengths and eight lengths. If she gets out in front again on Thursday, she may prove impossible to run down.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Juba’s Punch (4-1)
• #4 Witness the Energy (2-1)
• #8 Cherokee Castle (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Juba’s Punch

Charles Town: Race 5: $10,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 8:53 p.m. ET)

#2 Juba Bound (9-2) has shown speed in two starts since being claimed by trainer Michelle Knoblauch. He faded in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Charles Town last time out, finishing fifth, but he’d previously wired a $10,000 claimer sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs, winning by 4 3/4 lengths with a strong 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

Cutting back to 4 1/2 furlongs and returning to the $10,000 claiming ranks should make Juba Bound competitive, especially when you consider how well pacesetters and inside-drawn runners perform in these short dirt dashes at Charles Town. We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Juba Bound.

Selections

• #2 Juba Bound (9-2)
• #3 Froggy the Gremlin (15-1)
• #1 Colt Rock (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Juba Bound

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $121,788 Pick 5 carryover (2:46 p.m. ET)

Feel like chasing a five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover? Then check out the Thursday card at Gulfstream Park, where the 50-cent Late Pick 5 features an enticing $121,788 carryover.

Let’s assemble a ticket for $36:

Race 4: $50,000 Starter Allowance (one mile on turf)

There are a number of viable contenders in this competitive grass heat. #1 Busy Morning (5-2) and #6 Crimson Princess (3-1) exit victories over this course and distance, but #5 Carrington (6-1)—runner-up over this course, distance, and class level on March 14—may be fast enough to challenge.

Race 5: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#2 Vayesta (5-2) has placed three times over the Gulfstream Tapeta and looms a logical contender while dropping in class out of a $25,000 maiden claimer on turf, though her 0-for-6 lifetime record is cause for pause. We’ll also play #1 Time Miss (8-1), #4 Miss Holly (8-1), #5 Lucevan La Stelle (5-1), #6 Jess’s Moment (12-1), and #10 Allovernow Babyblu (12-1).

Race 6: $20,000 Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta)

#3 Sand Dancer (8-5) finished third in a $16,000 starter handicap last time out, but he’d previously won three straight $12,500, $10,000, and $20,000 claimers over the Gulfstream Tapeta. He’s a formidable win threat while returning to the claiming ranks, though #1 Grand David (4-1)—a gate-to-wire winner of a $35,000 claimer over the Gulfstream Tapeta last November—could be a viable challenger while making his 2024 debut.

Race 7: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (five furlongs on turf)

#6 Bonus Move (6-5) was terrific when making his turf debut in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream last month, setting blazing fractions of :21.83 and :43.87 before kicking away to win by 6 1/4 lengths with a 90 Brisnet Speed rating. A repeat will make him tough to catch since pacesetters have won 40% of five-furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream since Dec. 1, though the stakes-experienced #1 Apollo Ten (7-2) has shown flashes of talent too and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Race 8: $25,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

In his first start since being claimed by trainer Rohan Crichton, #5 Academy Choice (7-5) ran strongly in a $25,000 claimer sprinting five furlongs over the Gulfstream Tapeta, setting sharp fractions of :21.71 and :44.60 before faltering only slightly to finish second by a head. He pulled 5 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and is sticking to the same class level on Thursday, stamping Academy Choice as a viable single to conclude the Pick 5.

• 50-cent Pick 5: 1,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6,10 with 1,3 with 1,6 with 5 ($36)

Good luck!