Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Hawthorne’s $12,876 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 11, at Colonial Downs and Saratoga, along with a single for the $12,876 Pick 5 carryover at Hawthorne.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 2:02 p.m. ET)

Unraced two-year-old #5 Drink Deeply (2-1) has been cranking out sharp workouts for trainer Kelsey Danner, culminating with a half-mile from the Turfway Park starting gate in a bullet :47 4/5.

Since 2022, Danner has compiled a respectable 6-1-1-2 record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs, which equates to a 17% win rate and a 67% in-the-money rate.

Let’s bet Drink Deeply to win and key her over #3 Glory Glory (9-5) in a cold exacta. The latter filly finished fourth in her debut on dirt at Gulfstream Park, but is eligible to move forward for trainer Mary Lightner, who wins at a 40% rate with second-time starters.

Selections

• #5 Drink Deeply (2-1)
• #3 Glory Glory (9-5)
• #7 Let Thesunshine In (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Drink Deeply
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 3
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:08 p.m. ET)

Trainer Keri Brion wins at a 17% rate with horses debuting on turf, so we’ll take a shot backing her #7 All Gas No Brakes (3-1) in this maiden sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Hopportunity enters off fast workouts at Fair Hill, including half a mile in a near-bullet :47 2/5.

#5 Bonne Fille (3-2), switching to turf off a fifth-place finish in her debut at Churchill Downs, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 All Gas No Brakes (3-1)
• #5 Bonne Fille (3-2)
• #1 Sea Lion (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 All Gas No Brakes
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 5
  Total: $25

Saratoga: Race 10: Schuylerville S. (six furlongs on dirt, 6:16 p.m. ET)

#9 Long Neck Paula (8-1) delivered an eye-catching debut in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on May 2 at Churchill Downs. Despite breaking from post 11, she flashed impressive speed to secure the early lead and pulled away down the homestretch to score by 3 1/2 lengths.

Visually speaking, this was a big performance, and Long Neck Paula’s quick final time of :51.56 earned a respectable 85 Brisnet Speed rating. She’s facing a far fiercer field in the Schuylerville, but her 8-1 morning line odds offset the risk of stepping up in class. We’ll bank on this Wesley Ward trainee to spring an upset.

Selections

• #9 Long Neck Paula (8-1)
• #3 Sherbini (9-2)
• #10 Viggiedal (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Long Neck Paula

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 5: $12,876 Pick 5 carryover (5:02 p.m. ET)

There’s an enticing non-jackpot carryover on the table in Thursday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Hawthorne. The wager went unsolved last Sunday, producing a five-figure prize pool worth $12,876.

Mathematically speaking, this is a fairly straightforward sequence. The five races drew only 43 horses (averaging 8.6 per race) before scratches, and two of them are also-eligibles. All told, there are only 45,056 possible outcomes to sort through.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out Race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies dashing 4 1/2 furlongs on dirt. It might seem risky to single a horse who’s never raced before, but first-time starter #4 Arrivedercci (8-5) has shown serious speed in the mornings and looks like a reliable runner to build Pick 5 tickets around.

Arrivedercci has posted a couple of bullet workouts at Hawthorne in the last month. On June 16, she sped three furlongs in :34 2/5. And last Friday, she blazed half a mile from the starting gate in :46 3/5. She shouldn’t have to run much faster to win this.

Now for the trainer and jockey stats. Arrivedercci is conditioned by Larry Rivelli, a 30% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Since 2021, Rivelli has gone 8-for-22 (36%) debuting juveniles on dirt at Hawthorne, with another seven runners finishing in the top three.

Arrivedercci is slated to be ridden by David Cohen, a 24% winner at Hawthorne this meet and a 24% winner teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months.

Seven horses will square off against Arrivedercci this Thursday, but the three experienced runners have all been defeated over this class level in Illinois, and the four first-time starters lack the same combination of fast workouts and appealing trainer stats as Arrivedercci. 

#2 Reimagine (4-1) has shown some speed in the mornings, but his fastest half-mile time is :48 3/5 (two seconds slower than Arrivedercci), and trainer Louie Roussel III strikes only 10% of the time with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

There are no sure things in horse racing, but Arrivedercci looks downright formidable on debut, and we’ll confidently single her in the Pick 5. 

Good luck!