Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Lobo longshots at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 14 at Turfway Park, along with horses to play in the $10,955 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fraser Downs 15% Win Bonus: Earn a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Nov. 16 through Dec. 15.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

Trainer Paulo Lobo has gone 7-for-22 (32%) saddling first-time starters at Turfway Park since 2022, which includes a 2-for-5 (40%) record debuting juveniles. This suggests Lobo’s unraced two-year-old #8 Solidified Gold (8-1) is an overlay in this maiden claiming sprint.

Solidified Gold breezed a bullet three furlongs from The Thoroughbred Center starting gate in :36 1/5 last Friday, the culmination of a lengthy work tab. Thursday’s field hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so we’re willing to bet Solidified Gold can spring a surprise at enticing odds.

Selections

• #8 Solidified Gold (8-1)
• #11 Pleasant Destiny (7-2)
• #6 Don’t Stop (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Solidified Gold

Turfway Park: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#11 Rockin Justice (10-1) hasn’t been in the best form this year, but he’s been competing against tougher competition and managed to finish second in a 1 1/16-mile grass allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis during the spring.

Rockin Justice has yet to race over a synthetic track, but he’s a son of Harry’s Holiday, whose exploits on synthetic included a runner-up finish in the Spiral (G3) (now the Jeff Ruby Steaks) over Turfway’s old Polytrack course. There’s a chance Rockin Justice will thrive while trying Tapeta, so we’ll take a shot betting him to win.

Selections

• #11 Rockin Justice (10-1)
• #8 Celerity (5-2)
• #3 Crowley’s War (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Rockin Justice

Turfway Park: Race 7: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

Keeping in mind Paulo Lobo’s above-mentioned record of success saddling first-time starters at Turfway Park, we’ll support #8 Rapping Wish (12-1) in this maiden claimer for fillies and mares. The unraced three-year-old has put together a long work tab featuring several five-furlong exercises at Turfway Park.

#9 K’antheia (3-1) and #11 Words of Praise (4-1) are logical exacta candidates while dropping in class out of maiden special weights.

Selections

• #8 Rapping Wish (12-1)
• #9 K’antheia (3-1)
• #11 Words of Praise (4-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #8 Rapping Wish
• $2 Exacta: 8 with 9,11 ($4)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 6: $10,955 Pick 6 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Fair Grounds kicks off on Thursday with a five-figure, non-jackpot carryover worth $10,955 up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Two of the trickiest legs of the sequence are Race 6 and Race 8, a pair of six-furlong maiden special weights for two-year-olds with slightly different eligibility conditions. Race 6 is restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction, while Race 8 is open to horses of all purchase prices.

Understandably, Race 6 has come up lighter. At first glance, none of the experienced runners bring particularly good form to the table. But dig a little deeper and #6 Runaway Joke (7-2) becomes compelling.

Runaway Joke exits an eighth-place finish over this distance and class level at Churchill Downs last month. On that occasion, he tracked quick fractions of :21.52 and :45.49 before weakening to finish eighth by 4 1/2 lengths.

There isn’t much speed in Thursday’s field, so Runaway Joke has a chance to shake loose on an uncontested lead and take this field all the way on the front end. Is he a single? Maybe, though bettors with sufficient budget might want to include #1 Den’s Good Grace (6-1) for good measure. The unraced Chris Hartman trainee is a half-brother to two stakes winners (including the speedy sprinter Forgive), and Hartman wins at a respectable 15% rate with first-time starters.

Race 8 looks more straightforward at first glance since #4 Trust Issues (7-2) is clearly the fastest of the experienced runners on paper, having posted an 84 Brisnet Speed rating when rallying after a slow start to finish third in his debut sprinting five furlongs at Churchill Downs. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 85, and Trust Issues form was flattered when runner-up Silent Heart returned to win his next start.

But Trust Issues could face challenges from a pair of first-time starters. #3 Crafted (9-2) enters off back-to-back bullet workouts at Fair Grounds for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, including three furlongs from the starting gate in :35 3/5. And we can’t underestimate the well-bred #1 Sabi (6-1), whose trainer—Michael Stidham—has gone 3-1-1-1 debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Fair Grounds since 2022. Pick 6 bettors might want to use both of these runners alongside Trust Issues if budget allows.

Good luck!