Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Man of Mischief looks live

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 15 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including live longshots to play in Colonial’s $7,936 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 1:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t typically crank his young horses to run their best race first time out, so it was noteworthy to see #3 Man of Mischief (5-2) finish second in his debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level on July 25.

McPeek wins at a 15% rate with second-time starters, so Man of Mischief is eligible to move forward on Thursday. Any improvement will make him formidable since the Brisnet Speed rating he earned on debut (83) is nearly equal to the par winning number (84) for Thursday’s conditions.

A win bet is warranted.

Selections

• #3 Man of Mischief (5-2)
• #9 Keepinitreal (4-1)
• #5 Manhattan Twist (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Man of Mischief

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:59 p.m. ET)

Trainer Ignacio Correas IV doesn’t often saddle winning first-time starters, so #4 Give Life (7-2) could get overlooked in this wide-open dash for two-year-old fillies. But 38% of Correas-trained first-time starters finish in the top three, so they frequently run well, and Give Life may be ready to fare even better than usual and secure victory.

A two-year-old daughter of the Group 1-winning juvenile Caravaggio, Give Life was produced by the unraced mare Call Mariah, who has previously foaled Texas Turf Mile winner Bodecream and the Group 3-placed Califante. This is a pedigree geared top and bottom toward success on turf and also early maturity.

Give Life has put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in 1:00 3/5. Throw in the fact Correas has compiled a 4-1-1-1 (25%) record at Colonial Downs this meet, and Give Life is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #4 Give Life (7-2)
• #2 Seger Songs (6-1)
• #5 Love Music (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Give Life

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#10 El Rocky (8-5) owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, including a 61 posted when third in a five-furlong dash on July 29. The son of Demarchelier has the pedigree to stretch out over one mile and has hot apprentice jockey Oscar Villarreal (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance) in the saddle, so there’s a lot to like about this two-year-old gelding.

Let’s place a large win bet on El Rocky and call it a day.

Selections

• #10 El Rocky (8-5)
• #7 Bitofjustice (4-1)
• #1 Chicory Blaze (6-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #10 El Rocky

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $7,936 Pick 6 carryover (3:27 p.m. ET)

Looking for live longshots to play in Thursday’s $7,936 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs? We’ve got you covered with a pair of double-digit suggestions:

Race 5: #12 Jassai (30-1)

Jassai hasn’t cracked the trifecta in five starts on turf, so it might seem strange to rank the three-year-old filly as a live longshot in this $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on turf, and surely those conditions aren’t suitable for Jassai?

Maybe, or maybe not. Jassai is dropping in class after finishing eighth in a $25,000 claimer (for non-winners of two races) over this course and distance last month. On that occasion, she finished only three-quarters of a length behind #10 Wilma Flintshire (5-1), one of the morning line favorites in Race 5.

Whereas Wilma Flintshire showed little that day, Jassai made a nice middle move to reach third place before flattening out in the final furlong. Dropping into a $12,500 claimer and picking up hot jockey Ismerio Villalobos can open the door for a competitive performance at giant odds.

Race 6: #10 Beautiful Gorgeous (10-1)

It’s been over a year since Beautiful Gorgeous rallied boldly to win a Virginia-restricted maiden special weight racing 1 1/16 miles on turf at Colonial Downs. She’s gone winless in six starts since then and looms as a double-digit longshot in this $30,000 claimer for Virginia-restricted fillies and mares who have never won two races.

But this one-mile turf test may prove perfect for Beautiful Gorgeous. Four of her recent defeats have come against allowance competition, and one came in a stakes. She’s hit the board a couple of times and exits a decent fifth-place finish in a $45,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

Dropping into a $30,000 claimer can help this stretch-running filly get back to the winner’s circle under red-hot jockey Jevian Toledo, a 33% winner at Colonial Downs this meet. Perhaps adding blinkers will make a difference too, sharpening the speed of Beautiful Gorgeous and helping her to get into the race sooner. Any way you slice it, her 10-1 morning line odds seem too high.

Good luck!