Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Navy Seal cuts back in distance

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 21 at Churchill Downs, including a trio of win bets.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Tournaments November 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout November and receive 25% cash back.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Tiger Division (5-2) finished second in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Nov. 2, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field.

Tiger Division has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns and showed some stamina when finishing third in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs turf course three starts back. Tackling 1 1/16 miles on dirt may send Tiger Division to the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Luis Saez and Rusty Arnold.

Selections

• #1 Tiger Division (5-2)
• #7 Carolina Smokeshow (4-1)
• #6 Multiplication (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Tiger Division

Churchill Downs: Race 9: Allowance (1 1/8 miles on turf, 4:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Navy Seal (5-2) possibly lacked the stamina to handle 1 5/16 miles when tiring from a pacesetting position to finish fifth by 3 1/4 lengths in the Nashville Derby (G3). Two starts back, he was beaten less than one length when second in a 1 1/16-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga. The winner, West Hollywood, returned to take the Saranac (G3).

Cutting back to 1 1/8 miles should suit Navy Seal just fine. Let’s bet him to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Navy Seal (5-2)
• #3 My Boy Tony (3-1)
• #10 Bourbon Boss (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Navy Seal
• $10 Double: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:24 p.m. ET)

#1 Upon a Star (5-2) finished 3 1/4 lengths behind #6 Lord I Wonder (3-1) when they ran fourth and second in a maiden special weight at Keeneland last month. But Lord I Wonder benefited from saving ground over an inside-favoring track while Upon a Star raced outside.

Upon a Star can turn the tables over a (presumably) fair track on Thursday. Let’s bet her to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #1 Upon a Star (5-2)
• #6 Lord I Wonder (3-1)
• #9 Gate to Paradise (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Upon a Star

Good luck!