Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Not Normal can ship and win

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 22 at Fair Grounds, Turfway Park, and Charles Town, including horses to play in the $2,438 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Fraser Downs 25% Win Bonus: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Feb. 8 through Feb. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 3:15 p.m. ET)

#1 Silent Count (8-5) has put together a sharp work tab full of bullet workouts for trainer Tom Amoss, a 20% winner at Fair Grounds this meet and a 27% winner with horses debuting over one mile or farther. The son of Audible isn’t facing the toughest field on Thursday and looks ready to vie for victory.

#2 Summer in Aiken (5-2), runner-up over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 1, looks like the best of the experienced runners. We’ll key Silent Count over Summer in Aiken in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Silent Count (8-5)
• #2 Summer in Aiken (5-2)
• #6 Performance Plus (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 2

Turfway Park: Race 8: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Not Normal (8-1) threw down a strong 99 Brisnet Speed rating when rallying to finish second in a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Parx Racing last month. That was his first sprint try since trouncing a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Parx last spring by 4 1/4 lengths.

Not Normal is a son of Mendelssohn, whose progeny have won a bevy of races at Turfway Park since November, so switching from dirt to Tapeta shouldn’t be an issue. Not Normal blazed a bullet half-mile in :46 on Feb. 10 at Penn National and looks capable of springing a surprise against logical favorite #2 Wico (6-5).

Let’s bet Not Normal to win and key him over Wico in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Not Normal (8-1)
• #2 Wico (6-5)
• #8 Bromley (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #1 Not Normal
• $8 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Charles Town: Race 8: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 10:17 p.m. ET)

#5 Tizafastbullet (5-1) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in five starts, but all five of those starts have come at Gulfstream Park, where the competition is tougher. He regularly shows tactical speed and should appreciate tackling a 4 1/2-furlong sprint at Charles Town, considering pacesetters win 60% of races over this configuration.

Throw in the fact trainer David Walters has gone 4-for-11 (36%) since the start of the year, and Tizafastbullet is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #5 Tizafastbullet (5-1)
• #1 Moonset (7-5)
• #10 Robbedinthebahamas (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Tizafastbullet

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $2,438 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Fair Grounds gets underway on Thursday with a $2,438 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

The six-race sequence looks competitive with 56 horses (averaging about 9.3 per race) and 576,000 possible outcomes before scratches. But that said, a couple of races look fairly straightforward to handicap.

Race 6 is an example. It’s a six-furlong dirt allowance for Louisiana-bred three-year-old fillies who have yet to win two races. #5 Freeburn (8-5) is the morning line favorite and a logical threat; she hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts and ran second in the six-furlong Louisiana Futurity at Fair Grounds two starts back. But she was beaten 4 3/4 lengths when second over Thursday’s class level on Jan. 28, so she isn’t necessarily unbeatable while sticking to the same conditions.

That’s why we’ll include #1 Lil Chilly (7-2) as backup. Conditioned by hot trainer Gary Scherer (a 21% winner at Fair Grounds this meet), Lil Chilly earned an 81 Brisnet Speed rating when battling to victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Louisiana breds at Fair Grounds last month. Considering Freeburn’s last two Brisnet Speed ratings are 80 and 81, Lil Chilly is fast enough to challenge even while stepping up in class.

Race 8 is another straightforward race. It’s a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and only six runners have been entered.

#2 Empire’s Best (7-5), a four-year-old from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox, is the morning line favorite after finishing second by half a length over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 25. But Empire’s Best escaped with an easy lead that day and still managed to falter as the 1-2 favorite. He’s 0-for-5 lifetime and might be vulnerable to another upset.

The main opposition is surely #1 Blood Brother (5-2), Empire’s Best’s three-year-old stablemate. The unraced Triple Crown nominee has put together an encouraging work tab in preparation for his debut, and it’s important to note Cox wins at a lofty 25% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

There’s hardly any speed entered in Thursday’s field, so Blood Brother has every chance to track Empire’s Best through the early stages before wearing him down in the homestretch.

Good luck!