Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Play this 10-1 maiden

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 18 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of the $15,043 Pick 5 carryover at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Since 2019, trainer Christopher Clement has compiled a solid 13-3-2-2 (23%) record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s why we’re keen to support Clement’s unraced two-year-old #10 Brindi (7-2).

A daughter of Group 1-winning juvenile sprinter No Nay Never, Brindi has turned in a couple of workouts over Saratoga’s turf training track and is slated to be ridden by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. There’s a lot to like about this well-bred filly, so we’ll bet Brindi to win.

Selections

• #10 Brindi (7-2)
• #1 Flirting With Time (6-1)
• #9 Moon Gate (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Brindi

Colonial Downs: Race 11: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

Trainer Mary Lightner knows how to saddle winning juveniles over the Colonial Downs turf. Since 2022, she’s gone 3-for-7 (43%) with such runners, which includes a 3-for-6 (50%) tally in sprints.

So let’s get behind Lightner’s unraced two-year-old #1 Lazio (6-1), a son of talented turf sprinter Bucchero. Lazio enters off a bullet three-furlong workout from the starting gate and has every chance to outrun his 6-1 morning line odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Lazio (6-1)
• #9 Battle On (9-2)
• #3 Curahee (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Lazio

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#4 Merlin’s Magic (10-1) showed little when last seen in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt, finishing a distant seventh. But two starts back, in his debut over the same distance and class level on turf at Kentucky Downs, Merlin’s Magic closed some ground to finish seventh by only 6 3/4 lengths.

Merlin’s Magic has been freshened since September. He’s also been gelded and is adding blinkers and Lasix for his return. Getting back on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis (where the competition should be easier than at Kentucky Downs) can help Merlin’s Magic spring a double-digit upset under hot jockey Walter Rodriguez, who has gone 4-for-8 (50%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Selections

• #4 Merlin’s Magic (10-1)
• #3 Bomb Cyclone (9-5)
• #8 Karadia (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Merlin’s Magic

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 4: $15,043 Pick 5 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Delaware Park brings a non-jackpot $15,043 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Keep a close eye on race-day changes and scratches before designing your tickets. Delaware hosted one grass race over soft footing on Wednesday, but subsequent evening rain could potentially prompt Thursday’s grass events to be switched to dirt.

That won’t affect Race 4, the opening leg of the Late Pick 5. It’s an $8,000 starter optional claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. Nine-year-old veteran #1 He’s Incredible (3-2) brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks formidable after finishing second behind a next-out winner in a $25,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Parx. That said, #6 He’s in Charge (5-1) posted a higher Brisnet Speed rating when second by a head over this track, distance, and class level on May 30, his most recent dirt start. He’s in Charge has an upset chance for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Jaime Rodriguez and Jamie Ness.

Race 5, on the other hand, is a $40,000 maiden claimer slated to take place over about 1 1/16 miles on turf. If it stays on grass, #8 Zevon (9-2) might be the runner to beat, given that he’s hit the board in a couple of maiden special weights on turf. And guess what? Zevon has also run well on dirt, finishing third by 1 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Delaware Park, so he’ll be a win threat regardless of surface.

Race 6 is a $17,500 allowance optional claimer slated for six furlongs on dirt. It’s tough to split the six entrants; we might give a slight preference to #5 Got Thunder (9-5), runner-up in a $16,000 allowance optional claimer at Monmouth Park last time out. That effort yielded an encouraging 88 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest last-out number in the Race 6 field.

Race 7 is another possible turf race: an about-7 1/2-furlong $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races. #9 Court Contender (3-2), a main-track-only entrant, has been recording top-two finishes against $25,000 and $16,000 starter optional claiming competition at Delaware Park and looms as a fierce win threat (maybe even a single?) if the race is transferred to dirt. Otherwise, #6 The Colora Kid (15-1) boasts sharp grass form and is a win contender at enticing odds under hot apprentice jockey Ederik Robles, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance.

The Pick 5 wraps up with Race 8, a $12,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #8 Lil Jersey Girl (3-1) exits a runner-up finish dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level and is as logical a win threat as any, though spreading deep might be the best way to survive this seemingly wide-open finale. Gulfstream Park shipper #9 Ladida (9-2) has some early speed, and first-time starter #2 Estrellis (8-1) wouldn’t have to be a superstar to factor on debut.

Good luck!