Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $85,837 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 29, at Kentucky Downs, Saratoga, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in Saratoga’s $85,837 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Kentucky Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Kentucky Downs from Aug. 29 through Sept. 11.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Kentucky Downs: Race 2: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:57 p.m. ET)

During the 2023 meet at Kentucky Downs, trainer Brendan Walsh compiled a stellar 3-for-4 (75%) record with juveniles who had previously raced.

Perhaps Walsh can pick up where he left off with #7 Blue Coast (3-1), who recently led all the way to win a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf. The daughter of Omaha Beach earned a sharp 81 Brisnet Speed rating and appears capable of winning right back.

Selections

• #7 Blue Coast (3-1)
• #3 Makeit to Cheyenne (7-2)
• #9 Heat (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Blue Coast

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:53 p.m. ET)

#8 Noble Confessor (2-1) ran well when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last month, tracking the pace before staying on to finish third in a 10-horse field.

As a son of Quality Road out of a mare by Noble Mission, Noble Confessor has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over one mile for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who wins at a 21% rate with second-time starters and with horses running long for the first time.

Let’s bet Noble Confessor to win and key him over #9 T Kraft (3-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #8 Noble Confessor (2-1)
• #9 T Kraft (3-1)
• #1 American Promise (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Noble Confessor
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 9
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Tim Eggleston has compiled a respectable 6-1-2-0 (17%) record debuting two-year-old Thoroughbreds at Horseshoe Indianapolis. With this in mind, #2 Goody Two Socks (10-1) seems a bit overpriced at her morning-line odds.

An unraced daughter of Charming Kitten, Goody Two Socks has shown a bit of speed in the mornings, most notably clocking half a mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :48 1/5. Under jockey Emmanuel Esquivel (an 18% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet), Goody Two Socks is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #2 Goody Two Socks (10-1)
• #12 Foxy Justice (5-2)
• #8 Annie Express (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Goody Two Socks

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 6: $85,837 Pick 6 carryover (3:53 p.m. ET)

Upsets rolled in left and right during Wednesday’s $1 Pick 6 at Saratoga. Every favorite in the sequence fell to defeat, and four of the winners started at 9-1 or higher. Suffice to say, no one assembled a winning ticket (five out of six winners paid $28,612), triggering an $85,837 Pick 6 carryover for Thursday.

The opening leg is race 6, the maiden special weight in which #8 Noble Confessor (2-1) is our top choice. However, for Pick 6 purposes, we recommend using #9 T Kraft (3-1) in equal strength. T Kraft finished ahead of Noble Confessor in the latter’s debut, and while we view Noble Confessor as having more upside, T Kraft has shown talent in his own right and is a threat to spring a mild upset.

Moving on, race 7 offers an opportunity to play a live longshot. That is a 1 1/16-mile grass maiden special weight, and those conditions should suit #1 Right to Vote (8-1) just fine. Trained by Chad Brown (a 23% winner at Saratoga this meet), Right to Vote started twice last year, finishing eighth in his debut on dirt (behind future stakes winners Locked and Drum Roll Please) before switching to turf for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct, in which he surged fast from behind a slow pace to finish third by a neck.

Right to Vote hasn’t run since, but Brown wins at a 26% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and the addition of Lasix could potentially trigger improvement. At 8-1, Right to Vote will add value to the Pick 6 if he visits the winner’s circle.

The feature event in the sequence is race 10, the With Anticipation (G3) for two-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. British raider #8 Cavallo Bay (3-1) is an obvious win threat for hot trainer Charlie Appleby, and #7 Zulu Kingdom (4-1) — a maiden winner in France — is a must-user contender in his first start for Brown.

But you shouldn’t leave the American runner #6 Reach for the Rose (5-1) off your tickets. He debuted in the five-furlong Royal Palm Juvenile S. over the Gulfstream Park grass, where he gained 5 1/4 lengths through the final furlong to finish second with a sharp 91 Brisnet Speed rating. He followed up with a 5 1/2-length win in an off-the-turf maiden special weight racing one mile at Saratoga, so this son of Audible clearly has talent and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Good luck!