Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Single for Keeneland’s $25,217 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 24 at Keeneland and Turf Paradise, including a horse to single in Keeneland’s $25,217 Pick 6 carryover

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 23 through April 25 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $400 Keeneland Feeder to 5/2 Kentucky Oaks KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 5/1 Thurby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#8 Tough Critic (6-1) has the credentials to win first-time out for trainer George Weaver, an 18% winner with horses debuting on turf.

A son of the Group 1-winning juvenile turf sprinter Caravaggio, Tough Critic has already posted a pair of half-mile workouts at Palm Beach Downs, and he’s slated to be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. At 6-1, Tough Critic is worth betting to win and playing over #7 Raffinato (3-1) and #10 Longshoreman (8-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Tough Critic (6-1)
• #10 Longshorman (8-5)
• #7 Raffinato (3-1)

Wagers

• $17 to win on #8 Tough Critic
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 7,10 ($8)
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Lyman and Bradley Rollins S. (six furlongs on dirt, 6:00 p.m. ET)

#1 Katar (9-5) boasts a 7-for-11 record at Turf Paradise, which includes three straight sprint wins last year. Katar wired the 6 1/2-furlong Cactus Wren S. by 8 3/4 lengths, then smashed the Lyman and Bradley Rollins by 11 1/4 lengths.

Katar has been freshened since disappointing with a troubled trip in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita last May. He’s turned in a lengthy series of fast workouts in preparation for his comeback and should be fit to defend his Lyman and Bradley Rollins title.

Let’s single Katar to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Katar (9-5)
• #3 Brandyn (4-1)
• #6 Pop d’Oro (4-5)

Wagers

• $30 Double: 1 with 4

Turf Paradise: Race 6: Gene Fleming Breeders’ Derby (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 6:35 p.m. ET)

#4 Time to Fly (7-5) enters off two sharp wins sprinting six furlongs at Turf Paradise. He romped by 4 1/4 lengths in a handicap before taking the Arizona Stallion S. by 1 1/2 lengths.

Those victories yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 87 and 86, clearly the two highest numbers belonging to any of the horses in the Gene Fleming Breeders’ Derby field. This race doesn’t contain a lot of speed on paper, so stretching out over 1 1/16 miles may allow Time to Fly to secure an easy lead and take this field all the way on the front end.

#7 Jacked Up (3-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Time to Fly (7-5)
• #7 Jacked Up (3-1)
• #6 Community Service (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 4 with 7

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 4: $25,217 Pick 6 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s penultimate day of racing at the Keeneland spring meet is highlighted by a $25,217 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Winning a share won’t be easy. Even once you remove 15 also-eligible entrants from consideration, the Pick 6 sequence contains 67 horses (averaging nearly 11.2 per race) and a staggering 1,824,768 possible outcomes. There’s a good chance the Pick 6 will go unsolved on Thursday as well, triggering a double carryover into Friday’s card.

But of course, a challenging Pick 6 sequence is more likely to deliver a big payoff if it does get hit. If you wish to take aim at Thursday’s carryover, we’ll get you started with a suggested single: #9 Velvet Devil (5-2) in Race 6, a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Velvet Devil is one of only seven fillies nominated to the 2025 Triple Crown. The Michael Tomlinson trainee debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Jan. 20 at Fair Grounds, finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths after pressing the pace and taking the lead in midstretch.

That effort earned an 86 Brisnet Speed rating, and Velvet Devil ran even better when making her second start over the same conditions on Feb. 15. She carved out a quick pace before weakening slightly in the final furlong to finish second by three-quarters of a length. She pulled 8 1/2 lengths clear of the rest and earned a flashy 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

Velvet Devil has turned in a bevy of sharp workouts in preparation for her third start, including a swift half-mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs. She looks ready to produce another strong effort in her Keeneland debut, and chances are she’s found found the perfect spot to secure a victory.

After all, none of the other experienced horses in Thursday’s field have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85. And while there are many first-time starters in the entries, they’re conditioned by trainers who don’t typically win with a high percentage of first-time starters.

For all these reasons, Velvet Devil is shaping up as a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

Good luck!