Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $13,022 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 11 at Turfway Park and Delta Downs, including horses to play in Turfway’s $13,022 Super High 5.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday (also Monday, Jan. 15).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 4: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

A couple of horses dropping in class look live in this $15,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds.

Godolphin homebred #12 Decatur Street (7-2) broke slowly when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight, but passed a few rivals to finish sixth. Adding Lasix and picking up apprentice jockey Irving Moncada (who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance) can put this son of Street Sense in contention.

#6 Patch O’Brien (5-1) can’t be dismissed either. He exits a fifth-place finish in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs and figures to find the competition easier while tackling a $15,000 contest at Turfway Park. It’s worth noting trainer Genaro Garcia wins at a 30% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Let’s place win bets on both Decatur Street and Patch O’Brien, then box them in a small exacta.

Selections

• #12 Decatur Street (7-2)
• #6 Patch O’Brien (5-1)
• #1 Company You Keep (3-1)

Wagers

• $14 to win on #12 Decatur Street
• $12 to win on #6 Patch O’Brien
• $2 Exacta: box 6,12 ($4)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: $7,500 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Vintage Vinyl (4-1) ran well in a series of $12,500 claimers during the fall at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing third, third, first, and fifth while repeatedly switching back and forth between dirt and turf.

Vintage Vinyl has posted nine straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-77 range, so consistency is a strong suit for this five-year-old gelding. Dropping in class for a $7,500 claimer can send him to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Alberto Burgos, a 21% winner at Turfway since November.

Selections

• #9 Vintage Vinyl (4-1)
• #10 Kingoftherainbow (5-1)
• #6 Official Business (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Vintage Vinyl

Delta Downs: Race 7: Allowance (five furlongs, 8:53 p.m. ET)

#3 Tripple D Ruller (15-1) is a longshot after finishing 11th and ninth in a pair of allowance sprints for Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds. But in his debut dashing five furlongs at Delta Downs, Tripple D Ruller dueled for the lead and edged clear late to win a maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds by 1 1/2 lengths.

That victory yielded a 74 Brisnet Speed rating, which gives Tripple D Ruller at least an outside chance to factor in this Delta Downs allowance. Perhaps returning to Delta’s bullring oval is all Tripple D Ruller needs to outrun his odds.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Tripple D Ruller.

Selections

• #3 Tripple D Ruller (15-1)
• #5 Aux Arcs (3-1)
• #1 Son Carlos (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Tripple D Ruller

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $13,022 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Four straight cards at Turfway Park have gone by without anyone hitting the $1 Super High 5. As a result, there’s a quadruple carryover worth $13,022 up for grabs on Thursday.

As usual, the prize pool is available to chase in the final race on the card. That would be Race 9, a $5,000 maiden claimer for older horses racing one mile on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 (including two also-eligibles) has been entered, so assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

The morning line favorite is #6 King of the Gods (3-1), a four-year-old gelding conditioned by high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, who has gone 4-for-18 (22%) at Turfway since November. King of the Gods finished ninth in his debut against maiden special weight competition on turf at Kentucky Downs, then dropped in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer over the Turfway Tapeta and finished sixth.

Descending to the $5,000 level figures to make King of the Gods competitive, especially since the Brisnet Speed ratings he’s earned against tougher competition (64 and 65) stack up well against Thursday’s field. If you’re looking for a horse to key on top in the Super High 5, King of the Gods might be the one.

#7 Texcoco (5-1) is another logical contender after finishing second and fourth in his last two starts over this track, distance, and class level. Texcoco has pacesetting speed, but is dropping blinkers for Thursday’s assignment and could potentially settle off the lead as a result. That wouldn’t be the worst thing since closers have done well racing one mile at Turfway since November.

#3 Norbert (4-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either. He finished just half a length behind Texcoco when third over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 15. That marked Norbert’s first run over a synthetic track, so he has upside for improvement under hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance.

If you want to add a longshot to the mix, give #1 Mr Yettie (15-1) a try. True, he’s yet to produce a competitive run, but he’s been facing tougher competition and arguably ran his best race to date when finishing seventh (beaten 7 1/4 lengths) in a $7,500 maiden claimer over the Belterra Park turf course last time out. Mr Yettie has been freshened since September and is dropping in class for his first start over the Turfway Tapeta, which should play kindly to his stretch-running style.

By playing King of the Gods on top and emphasizing Texcoco, Norbert, and Mr Yettie underneath, we should have a decent chance to cash a winning Super High 5 ticket.

Good luck!