Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $155,887 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 5 at Turf Paradise and Turfway Park, including longshots to play in Turfway’s $155,887 Pick 5 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 6: Shawn Swartz S. (one mile on dirt, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#2 Redline (2-1) has been in hot form for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro, a 23% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. After finishing second in a $40,000 claimer at Del Mar, Redline wired a $50,000 starter allowance at Los Alamitos, then shipped to Turf Paradise and won the Hank Mills Jr. S. by two lengths.

Those three efforts yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 97, 99, and 92, the best recent numbers belonging to any horse in the Shawn Swartz field.

Redline is 2-for-2 over the Turf Paradise main track; back in February, he rallied to win the one-mile Walter R. Cluer Memorial S. With all these positives in his corner, Redline is a logical choice to take home top honors over #7 Arma d’Oro (7-2).

Selections

• #2 Redline (2-1)
• #7 Arma d’Oro (7-2)
• #5 Coastal Jazz (6-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 Redline
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 1: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Soul Snatcher (8-1) was outsprinted in a $15,000 maiden claimer dashing five furlongs on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month, finishing fifth. He’s fared better in the past on dirt, cracking the trifecta in three out of four dirt starts. He ran particularly well in his lone route race, finishing second by a neck in a one-mile $15,000 maiden claimer at Belterra Park.

Dirt form often translates well to the Turfway Tapeta, and dropping down to the $5,000 level should help Soul Snatcher vie for victory in his return to one mile. Let’s try betting him to win.

Selections

• #3 Soul Snatcher (8-1)
• #2 Acting Debut (8-5)
• #12 Tie Breaker Lennie (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Soul Snatcher

Turfway Park: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Economic Hangover (9-2) has finished first, fourth, second, and fourth in his last four starts against $5,000 and $10,000 claiming company sprinting six furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. Those were respectable efforts, but Economic Hangover is eligible to improve while stretching out over one mile on Tapeta.

After all, Economic Hangover won a $7,500 claimer over this track and distance back in March. Brisnet Speed ratings suggest Economic Hangover is a good fit for Thursday’s field, so let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #7 Economic Hangover (9-2)
• #3 Funtastica (7-2)
• #2 Compressed Energy (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Economic Hangover

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 5: $155,887 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

The Holiday Meet at Turfway Park is barely underway, yet the 50-cent Pick 5 has already proven indecipherable on one occasion.

Turfway is known for its large, competitive fields that often produce upsets, and Wednesday—opening day of the meet—was no exception. A 43-1 upset in the second race on the card played a big part in knocking everyone out of the Early Pick 5, triggering a massive $155,887 carryover into Thursday’s Late Pick 5.

There’s a good chance we’ll see additional upsets on Thursday. Here are a couple of double-digit longshots to consider including on your Pick 5 tickets:

Race 5: #4 Mulima (15-1)

The opening leg of the Pick 5 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/4 miles on Tapeta. Morning line favorites #10 Farfalle (2-1) and #8 Jitterbug (5-2) bring solid credentials to the table and are well worth using, but Mulima also has the potential to factor.

Mulima finished behind Farfalle and Jitterbug in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf course last month, but she’d previously shown fine form over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt, finishing second and third in a pair of 1 1/16-mile maiden special weights.

Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt form often translates to success over the Turfway Tapeta; in fact, Wednesday’s 43-1 winner exited a series of dirt races at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Therefore, Mulima is eligible to improve while trying Tapeta for the first time. It helps that she’s bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles and has placed running as far as 1 3/8 miles in the past.

Race 7: #6 Neoking (30-1)

Speaking of horses with Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt form, Neoking exits six straight top-four finishes over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track, including a victory in a 5 1/2-furlong $12,500 claimer.

Now Neoking is taking on a one-mile $12,500 claimer over the Turfway Tapeta. The longer distance is a question mark, but the surface is not; Neoking has cracked the trifecta in three out of six previous starts at Turfway, most notably winning a 6 1/2-furlong $7,500 claimer back in January.

Neoking’s pedigree suggests stretching out over one mile won’t be an issue, and his Brisnet Speed ratings fit reasonably well against Thursday’s field. If he improves at all while returning to Tapeta, this four-year-old gelding can outrun his 30-1 morning-line odds.

Good luck!