Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Two Sunland carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 4 at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita, along with horses to play in a pair of Sunland Park carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursdays in April to win your share of a $1,000 daily jackpot.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:40 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #7 Wingman Scott (12-1) has been turning in fast workouts at Gulfstream Park, including half a mile in :47 3/5 and a bullet three furlongs in :36. He’s a son of Upstart, who sires a sharp 15% winners from first-time starters, and he hails from the barn of Ralph Nicks, who wins with 15% of his debuting runners.

Wingman Scott seems overpriced at 12-1, so we’ll take a shot betting the three-year-old gelding to win.

Selections

• #7 Wingman Scott (12-1)
• #1 Thirty Pound Test (8-5)
• #3 Etendre (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Wingman Scott

Oaklawn Park: Race 6: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 4:22 p.m. ET)

After finishing second by a head in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds, #5 Motown Dynamic (8-5) tackled the same distance at Oaklawn Park and led all the way to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths. That runaway victory yielded a 92 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Thursday’s field.

Motown Dynamic isn’t facing an abundance of pace rivals on Thursday, which should lend her an advantage over stretch-running #3 Tanya Showers (2-1), who has cracked the trifecta in a couple of Oaklawn sprint stakes. Let’s play Motown Dynamic over Tanya Showers in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Motown Dynamic (8-5)
• #3 Tanya Showers (2-1)
• #2 Our Keepsake (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 3

Santa Anita: Race 9: American (G3, one mile on turf, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Stretch-running #3 Gold Phoenix (5-2) has won a bevy of graded stakes, but he’s arguably at his best running a bit farther than one mile, and he hasn’t started since finishing fourth in the 1 1/2-mile Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last November.

Perhaps we can beat Gold Phoenix with the speedy longshot #4 Genius Jimmy (15-1), who has wired his last two turf starts at Santa Anita. He recently returned from a one-year layoff to win a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile over the Santa Anita lawn by half a length.

If Genius Jimmy improves in his second start off the layoff, he can potentially wire the American at double-digit odds. We’ll play accordingly with a win bet and a small exacta using Gold Phoenix for second place.

Selections

• #4 Genius Jimmy (15-1)
• #3 Gold Phoenix (5-2)
• #1 Johannes (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Genius Jimmy
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 5: $1,948 Pick 5 carryover (4:09 p.m. ET)
Sunland Park: Race 9: $1,005 Super High 5 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

There are a couple of non-jackpot carryovers up for grabs on Thursday at Sunland Park. The 50-cent Pick 5 features a $1,948 prize pool, while the 50-cent Super High 5 boasts a $1,005 pot.

Pick 5 bettors looking for a single to build tickets around should check out Race 5, the opening leg of the sequence. It’s an $8,000-$6,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and many of the 11 entrants bring uninspiring form to the table.

A notable exception is morning line favorite #1 Sweet But Fierce (8-5). She’s finished third in each of her last two starts against New Mexico-bred maiden special weight competition at Sunland, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 58 and 60 that fit will against Thursday’s field.

Sweet But Fierce should find the competition easier while dropping into a $6,500 maiden claimer. While this race is technically a non-state-restricted event, eight of the 11 entrants are New Mexico-breds, so Sweet But Fierce fits right in. Hot jockey Francisco Amparan (a 21% winner at Sunland this meet) retains the mount, setting the stage for Sweet But Fierce to deliver victory as a short-priced Pick 5 single.

Race 9 closes out the Pick 5, and it’s also the race on which Super High 5 betting is offered. Race 9 is a $7,500-$5,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races, and 10 runners have turned out for the 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash, which means there are 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

Six of the entrants contested a Feb. 22 $10,000 claimer for New Mexico-breds who have never won three races. The runner-up in the 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint was #2 Tatas Joe Mark (3-1), who pulled 2 1/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher #5 Quantum Bull (4-1). That marked the second straight 2-3 finish for Tatas Joe Mark and Quantum Bull over that track, distance, and class level, so they’re logical contenders while tackling a non-state-restricted $7,500-$5,000 claimer.

But in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, #3 Stafford to Kupp (6-1) is the horse to beat. He owns the two best numbers in the field, including an 80 posted when dominating a non-state-restricted $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races on Jan. 26 at Sunland Park.

That was a six-furlong sprint, and Stafford to Kupp has faltered in a couple of subsequent starts sprinting five furlongs and 4 1/2 furlongs in $6,250 and $5,000 claimers for non-winners of three races. But he was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths in the 4 1/2-furlong sprint after pressing the early pace, and the runner-up (who finished only half a length ahead of Stafford to Kupp) returned to win her next start.

All this is a way of saying Stafford to Kupp is worth including in the Pick 5 and even playing on top in the Super High 5. He may improve while stretching out over 6 1/2 furlongs, and if he visits the winner’s circle at 6-1 odds, we’ll be in line for nice payoffs.

Good luck!