Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Wager on this 12-1 longshot

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 21 at Turfway Park, along with analysis of Super High 5 carryovers at Turfway and Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

This maiden sprint for horses who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction hasn’t come up especially tough on paper. So let’s back the first-time starter #6 Bricklayer (8-1), a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming.

Bricklayer has put together a decent work tab for trainer Michael McCarthy, who is winning at an improved 17% rate with first-time starters this year. At 8-1, Bricklayer is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #6 Bricklayer (8-1)
• #1 Better Luck (5-2)
• #3 Joe Shiesty (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Bricklayer

Turfway Park: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#8 Commodore (8-1) has run twice against maiden special weight competition on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis, coming home fifth and fourth. Along the way he’s finished behind next-out winners like Fidget, Mighty Kai, and Value Engineer.

Switching to Tapeta and dropping in class for his first start as a gelding can put Commodore in win contention for trainer Cherie DeVaux, a 23% winner at Turfway since 2022. Let’s place a win bet on Commodore, then add a small exacta using #4 Tuscany’s Eagle (5-1) for second place.

Selections

• #8 Commodore (8-1)
• #4 Tuscany’s Eagle (5-1)
• #3 Oy Vey (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Commodore
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $16,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#8 Major Wager (12-1) looks like a decent fit for this $16,000 claimer. Last time out, he closed into decent finishing fractions to win a $12,500 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis. And during the spring, he nabbed a $20,000 starter optional claimer over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track.

Major Wager’s 10-2-0-3 lifetime record on synthetic includes a 4-1-0-2 tally at Turfway Park, where he broke his maiden back in December 2020. Returning to Tapeta can boost his already sharp form, so a win bet on Major Wager is in order.

Selections

• #8 Major Wager (12-1)
• #4 Rogue Element (5-1)
• #10 River Redemption (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Major Wager

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $14,737 Super High 5 carryover (12:10 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Gulfstream Park brings an enticing $14,737 carryover in the $1 Super High 5, and winning a share shouldn’t be overly difficult.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 1, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares dashing five furlongs on turf. With seven horses in the entries, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

The handicapping process is further simplified by the fact morning line favorite #6 Sickle Dance (8-5) looks like a reliable choice to emphasize in first and second place. The three-year-old filly hasn’t missed the board in three starts against maiden special weight competition. She debuted with a third-place finish dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial Downs, then finished fourth (beaten only two lengths) in a 6 1/2-furlong dash at Kentucky Downs. Most recently, she tackled the Gulfstream Tapeta track for a 5 1/2-furlong sprint and finished second.

Those three starts yielded improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 71, 85, and 86. Only one of Sickle Dance’s Thursday rivals has posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82, that being #4 Oolong Hai (3-1), who posted an 89 in April but has since posted numbers of 70, 55, and 77. In other words, Sickle Dance has the best recent form and looks tough to beat under four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz.

Who else should we include? Certainly Oolong Hai, who has cracked the trifecta in four of her last five starts. She posted that 89 Brisnet Speed rating in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Gulfstream Park turf course and is eligible to bring her A-game while returning to that configuration. Her last three starts have come sprinting six furlongs on the New York circuit, so cutting back to five furlongs gives Oolong Hai at least a small chance to upset Sickle Dance.

#5 Up for It (4-1) has likewise placed several times in maiden special weights sprinting on turf, albeit while posting lower Brisnet Speed ratings than Sickle Dance and Oolong Hai. And we have to respect #3 Beachland (5-1), who has twice finished second in maiden special weights on dirt. Her pedigree offers potential for success while switching to turf.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 4 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3,5 with 4 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5,7 ($18)
  Total: $54

Turfway Park: Race 9: $4,240 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Turfway Park is joining in on the Super High 5 carryover action with a $4,240 prize pool.

The $1 wager is available to play in Race 9, a $7,500 claimer for horses who have never won three races. A field of 14 (including two also-eligibles) has entered the six-furlong Tapeta sprint, and we’d like to highlight #6 Ready Pursuit (10-1) as a live longshot worth using, even on top.

Ready Pursuit has run okay against tougher company. He’s finished fifth in his last two starts sprinting against $20,000 and $16,000 claiming competition at Churchill Downs. In the latter contest, he was beaten only 3 3/4 lengths while earning a decent 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

Ready Pursuit ran second in a $5,000 claimer at Turfway during the spring and was claimed out of that contest by trainer Reina Gonzalez. Ready Pursuit subsequently spent time on the sidelines and has arguably improved since, so he figures to be dangerous while returning to Tapeta for a $7,500 claimer.

Good luck!