Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem Aug. 8, 2024

A good Thursday morning to you all! It’s Arlington Million week here in Virginia and it’s already been a pretty weird week. I was watching some of Tropical Storm Debby on my camera system back in Clearwater, Florida and from a distance it just looked like a big rain storm with some wind. But apparently she’s got dead aim on our coast up here near Virginia and we’re looking at a bunch of rain over the next couple of days. So the Million (G1), Beverly D. (G2), and the other five stakes will be run on Sunday now under what are supposed to be sunny skies. Let's hope the rain is done by Friday and Saturday allows the track to dry out as much as possible. Nothing ever goes easy in horse racing and this is just another example. But we adapt, and we move forward! 

As far as the race itself I’m excited to talk to some friends who follow international racing because to me the big question mark is Ancient Rome. I feel like cases can be made for or against all of the rivals and with a field of six, I don’t think anyone’s price is going to float too high. I know basically nothing about Ancient Rome so am excited to learn more about him as on paper he looks like a contender. 

Integration far and away has the most Colonial experience. He debuted last year on Million day in an undercard event and was sensational in victory. I remember someone on Twitter saying after all the stakes races “Integration is the horse to watch back from Million day.” That individual was right. He beat Program Trading in the Virginia Derby (G3) a month later and was on his way to becoming a superstar of this division. His win here earlier in the meet was a little puzzling for me. Yes, he won and won quite easily. He beat his two rivals. Yes, TWO rivals. I understand that three-horse races can sometimes look funny visually, but when he went to pass one of his rivals at the top of the lane it almost look like he wanted to take a bite out of his competition. His head kind of lunged over towards the other horse. He soon went by but didn’t switch leads on cue and kind of played around before winning by a strong margin. I just don’t think he’s going to have the room to make those kind of little mistakes and still beat a group like this.

I feel like everyone is going to be giving you picks and thoughts on the three big races, so let me share a couple thoughts on some undercard races. The $150,000 Andy Guest S. is a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint somewhat unique for us, it’s on the inner turf. Our turf sprints are usually on the outer and create more sweeping turns and horses can often come from far back. I’m wondering if speed might be good in this race, especially with the lanes down to 0 feet and all that fresh grass on the inner paths. So I’m really intrigued by #2 Bosserati, who’s very quick and drawn towards the rail.

The Petramalo Mile is the first stakes of the day and is over our main track. For most of the meet our dirt course was playing lightning fast. Not necessarily towards speed, but the final times were very fast. I’m guessing that #5 Hades sends to the lead and tries to go gate to wire. After such a fast start to his year and career, he’s been pretty dull the last several efforts. This seems like a good spot to get him confidence back, but if he doesn’t get back to what he was, he’ll get beat and at a short price. This race is kind of full of horses whose form has tailed off so I'm looking to the rail with #1 Rainy Skies, who’s gone right up the ladder and earned this shot against stakes company.