Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem Apr. 11, 2024

A good Thursday morning to you all! With the big prep weekend now concluded it feels like we get to settle into a couple of quietish racing weekends before the madness of Kentucky Derby week descends upon us. I started looking at the Keeneland past performances on Brisnet in preparation for my show on Thursday and am most excited about the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1). Didia has become a favorite of mine since we saw her make her U.S. debut at Colonial Downs a couple of seasons ago. She’s been sensational to say the least since coming here and looms a big threat in what looks like a super competitive edition of the race. 

The race that gave me the biggest fits in looking at was the Giants Causeway (G3), a turf sprint for the fillies and mares. I remember having a conversation with a friend a while back and we were talking about which types of races give us the biggest fits in terms of handicapping. For me it’s absolutely turf sprints. For the record he said his were turf marathons and those would likely be number two on my own list. 

I don’t know why it is, but I feel like in longer races I tend to gravitate towards looking for lone speed. In turf sprints, I seem to always find myself trying to get cute and find price horses that will be coming from off the pace. Keeneland has always felt like a turf course where you could come from off the pace in a sprint simply because of the added half furlong they run as opposed to the five furlong dashes at many other tracks. A good handicapper would probably actually look up that information. Me, I tend to just go off of feel, hence why I’m so bad at it. 

So I did go look it up and in the Brisnet past performance it shows that last fall at Keeneland 23% of 5.5 furlong turf sprints were won gate to wire. Another 23% of winners were from pressers while yet another 23% were won by horses who came from midpack. That of course leaves 31% of the winners coming from far off the pace to win. Consider me surprised. So far this short Keeneland meet there’s been two turf sprints, one won gate to wire and one won by a midpack closer. 

I think one of the reasons I struggle so much with turf sprints is that I don’t often factor in what kind of position a horse might find itself in by the time they get to that turn. A horse who might seem like a slightly off the pace closer could get shuffled back if they’re drawn towards the inside. If they’re drawn outside they could get stuck 3 or 4 wide. I’d actually be very curious to hear from some good handicappers if ground loss matters more in a turf sprint or a race where there’s two turns. My instinct would be to think, "more turns, more potential ground loss, more impact,” but I don’t know if it’s just that simple. The turn seems such an important part of a turf sprint. 

The other thing about turf sprints is trouble seems to be more magnified. Getting shuffled, a slow start, getting blocked, seems to mean instant loss whereas sometimes in dirt races or longer races it doesn’t feel quite so consequential. But there’s times in turf races where something goes even a little wrong and you know you’re done. 

So I’d be curious to hear from readers, what are some types of races you struggle with? And how do I get better at turf sprints?