Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem Aug. 22, 2024

A good Thursday morning to you all! Very excited for what should be a fun couple of days this weekend. King’s Plate 2.0 on Friday, Charles Town Classic (G2) on Friday night, and the Travers (G1) on Saturday. 

I had the good fortune of going to the Charles Town Classic a couple of years ago, and it was one of the most fun racing events I’ve attended. It was just a big ol’ party in West Virginia on a Friday night. One of the cooler things was seeing big-name connections just kind of milling about on the apron with all of us racing fans. Beers were flowing, the music between races was good, and the races were fun. I highly recommend going if you get a chance. 

This year’s edition has some great story lines. Last year’s champ Skippylongstocking is back as the even-money morning line favorite. What’s kinda crazy about him, is it seems no matter what the pace, this horse sits second early on. He always finds that spot behind a front runner. Other than his debacle in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), the last time Skippylongstocking wasn’t in second at first call, was when he led this race wire to wire last year.

It’s entirely possible he gets that same second-sitting trip this year as Frosted Departure is probably going to send to the front. There’s a number of horses who look like they want to sit second or third though, so we’ll see if “Skippy” can find his spot. 

Bendoog is kind of an interesting horse who also could show renewed speed after he didn’t get away as well last time out in the Suburban (G2). That was a weird track that day and he kind of had an odd trip, going from fourth out wide to grabbing the lead and the rail at the top of the lane. 

My stronger opinion of the two big Charles Town races is with Mystic Lake in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). I think if she can outgone Overnight Pow Wow to the first turn, she has a good chance to wire the field in the seven-furlong Oaks. She has got caught late in a few of her starts, and I wonder if maybe the shorter stretch at Charles Town might help her out. 

I was happy to have our own James Scully from Twinspires.com on the podcast this week to talk about the upcoming Travers Stakes. He sounds quite bullish on Thorpedo Anna, and she adds a huge extra layer to what is already an interesting race that’s full of storylines. 

Of the big four in this spot, I keep ending up on Fierceness. But I think you can certainly make cases for all of them; I just think Fierceness’ best race makes him the one to beat. He hasn’t paired up wins yet in his career, so that’s certainly a question mark. 

One of the more fun questions that horseplayers are going to be faced with on Travers Day actually comes up in the first race on the card. Geopolitics is your 4-5 favorite on the morning line and enters this race 0-for-5, with 5 second place finishes. She’s never been beaten more than a length and has been favored in all five of those starts. 

I believe that players normally should line up to try to beat a horse like this who keeps getting beat by narrow margins. And there are some interesting contenders she’s going to have to beat in here. I think the blinkers should be a good addition for her, but it really seems like one of those single or toss type of situations. 

I suppose if I’m this confused about which way to go on a 4-5 shot, then the answer is try to beat her. I feel like as horseplayers we get presented these toss or single type horses quite often; sometimes they’re easy to decide on, sometimes not. 

Best of luck wherever you’re playing this weekend!