Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem Jul. 25, 2024

A good Thursday morning to you all! Jim Dandy (G2) weekend up at the Spa and the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar should make for a great weekend of racing coast to coast. The Jim Dandy certainly isn’t short on storylines this year and I think a lot of them are around Fierceness. I always say I don’t like short prices on horses with lots of question marks and I think he fits that bill. Truly one of those horses you won’t be surprised if he wins by four or gets beat by 10. I think the pace scenario will be what could hurt him this time as his best races seem to have been when he’s on the lead or right off it. There looks like a couple of horses to his inside that also look like they want and frankly need the lead, so very curious to see what Johnny V. does with Fierceness in the early stages and what Fierceness does in the late stages. 

I had the great pleasure to welcome in longtime pro Paul Matties to the show this week and as always loved getting to chat with him. The former NHC champ is always one of my favorites to talk racing with. He talked about something we’ve talked about a fair bit recently on the show and that is about how many people are playing only Pick 5s and tough horizontal bets like that. I have a ton of friends who a massive majority of their play is just going for the big payoff bets like that. Which of course, to each their own. 

But if you look at the pools for a given day of racing at most tracks, it’s not like the Pick 5s are the majority of dollars out there. Now of course some of that is because it’s generally offered only once or twice a day at most places. Saratoga did $500,000 or so on their Wednesday Late Pick 5, obviously a great pool to bet into. But it’s not like these bets are a majority of where the money is bet. That’s $500,000 of a race that handled like $900,000 worth of bets that weren’t the Pick 5. 

I guess what I’m curious about is maybe there’s a little bit of misperception that so many people are ONLY dialed into the Pick 5. I remember when the Pick 6 was in it’s heyday in Southern California, it was all people talked about. I think there’s a little of that with the Pick 5 nowadays and I wonder if social media plays a part in that. People are certainly more likely to post a Pick 5 score for others to see than just a straight win bet on a 5-2 shot they may have bet. Also the pain of a Pick 5 tough beat might make one more apt to show their frustration online than your exacta getting nosed out on. I just wonder how many players who call themselves “Pick 5 players” are truly only betting the Pick 5? 

In sports betting online it seems like the same phenomenon is occurring. It’s always the big parlays that make all the news. This week there was an article about a golf bettor who did a series of “bet against” wagers by betting $2 million to win $30,000. A bridge jumper, but on losing golfers. He won this weekend by the way. I get that there isn’t a whole lot of sexy behind the win bet or an exacta, but those two pools still represent a massive part of the wagering experience. I just wish they got a little more love because for a lot of players, I think they’re a more sustainable long term option. The trouble with Pick 5s is that you’re often up against the best players in one of the toughest to hit wagers. Tough to overcome that despite the often lower takeout. 

Regardless of what wagers you’re playing this weekend, I hope they’re all winners!