Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem, Oct. 31, 2024

A good Thursday morning to you all! Hope everyone’s Breeders’ Cup preparations are going well as we near the big weekend.

I’m excited to watch the Thursday card from Del Mar just to mostly see if the prevailing speed from this summer is still strong. We only get nine races on Thursday and a couple undercard races Friday before the big cards kick off, so not a ton of time to glean information.

I was originally planning on going to this year’s Breeders’ Cup before Golden State Racing asked me to come down for a few weeks, so I’m having a little bit of FOMO with this year’s event. I don’t think there’s the star power of some years, but my overall sentiment in recent years has been that I much rather would have big competitive fields than have stars jog around the track at 4-5.

And other than Thorpedo Anna, we don’t have a whole lot of huge favorites coming up this weekend. So to me, that should make it very fun. 

The Classic (G1) is a monster race and feels like one of the more interesting ones in a while. There are almost always storylines galore in the Classic because of the intersection of the older handicap division runners and the three-year-olds finally meeting up. Throw in a big-name European horse and a 14-horse field, and it’s just a really exciting edition that I think you can make a lot of cases for horses.

To me, the most logical winner is Fierceness. When he’s been good, he’s been very good. And while earlier in his career, the thought was that he was inconsistent, I think the races he’s put forward lately have made him the most consistent of his generation. With City of Troy having never run on dirt, it just seems so tough to take a short price on a horse trying a surface for the first time in literally the richest race in the country.

I’ve seen a lot of people (me included) kind of wondering if Sierra Leone will finally wake up and get the winning trip that many (me included) have been expecting of him. The more I think about it, though, the more I think he’s just not going to. Newgate is probably the longshot I’m most intrigued by in this race. There are just a ton of question marks in this race that make it so much fun to look at and try to figure out. 

The international contingent is so deep this year, and for today’s podcast, I had Brisnet and TwinSpires’ own Kellie Reilly on the show to talk about all of them. An hour with her, and I felt so much more informed and highly recommend checking out that show. 

I think one overseas runner I’m really intrigued by is Soprano in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1). I know she just got dusted by She Feels Pretty, but She Feels Pretty had a great trip that day and seemingly woke up with the blinkers. Soprano didn’t have a ton of excuses; she looked like a big contender until she just kind of flattened out. But she did outkick several horses late. The distance is certainly a question, but if Soprano can race a little closer early and kick more, she may have a chance at a big price.

Friday’s Juvenile (G1) is always a highlight of the weekend as it really kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby (even though we’ve already got horses with points in their pocket). I’m thinking Gaming should get a really good setup and hoping he maybe gets the jump on Chancer McPatrick. I was so impressed with Chancer McPatrick's move last time out, though, I really do think he should be a top contender as well. 

Just some thoughts on the big weekend ... I know everyone is throwing their thoughts at you left, right, and center online. Take in some, but mostly do your own work, trust your instincts, and have a blast. We’ll recap all of it next week on my show and here in the column!