Tipsheet: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes

Keeneland's Friday card has been pushed to Monday and Saturday's racing will take place on Tuesday due to the weekends forecast of severe weather. 

A strong field of seven sophomores will travel nine panels over the Keeneland dirt in Saturday’s $1.25 million Blue Grass S. (G1). The 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will reward the first five across the wire with qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 structure.  

Blue Grass Stakes Picks

• #3 Burnham Square
• #4 Owen Almighty
• #1 River Thames
• #6 Chance McPatrick

Blue Grass Stakes Wagers

• $15 win and place #3 Burnham Square
• $1 superfecta box 1,3,4,6

Blue Grass Stakes Contenders

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#1 RIVER THAMES: Pletcher pupil suffered his first career setback when missing by a neck in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) last time out and is well drawn on the rail for this contest. New York-bred son of Maclean’s Music has trained in swift fashion leading up to his local debut and will be forcing the action from the opening bell with Irad Ortiz, Jr. inheriting the ride. 

#2 RENDER JUDGMENT: McPeek pupil earned a lifetime best Brisnet Speed number when second in the Virginia Derby with the addition of blinkers in his latest effort. The Blame colt still needs to get faster to run with the top contenders in the field, but he could rally for a piece late with another forward move under Sheldon Russell. 

#3 BURNHAM SQUARE: Holy Bull S. (G3) winner from the Ian Wilkes barn ran in spots last time in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and I think that he will put it all together in this one beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. The gelding has displayed major improvement since having blinkers added three back, and the move to nine furlongs will be a benefit to him in his second local appearance, too. 

#4 OWEN ALMIGHTY: Speightstown colt has crossed the wire in first or second in each of his six lifetime showings to date, led by a stylish Tampa Bay Derby (G3) triumph most recently. The $350,000 yearling purchase is a bit of a question mark at 1 1/8 miles, but he was superb at 1 1/16 miles in his latest venture and will be tough to upend with any improvement on Saturday. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount atop the Brian Lynch pupil. 

#5 EAST AVENUE: Grade 1 winner from the Brendan Walsh shedrow has done little in a pair of outings in succession, but he ran the best race of his career on the Keeneland surface and has to be given some respect in this spot. The bay son of Medaglia d’Oro put in a fast half-mile drill on the oval in preparation for this tilt and will likely be forcing the pace from the outset with Luan Machado signed on for the voyage. 

#6 CHANCER MCPATRICK: Two-time Grade 1 victor kicked off his 2025 season with a clear second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) for trainer Chad Brown. The expensive son of fine young sire McKinzie has earned substantial Brisnet Late Pace numbers in each lifetime try to date, and he has a lot of room for improvement, making his second run off the shelf, as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat comes in to retain the mount. 

#7 ADMIRAL DENNIS: Brad Cox pupil has been outrun in his two prior runs with stakes foes in advance of Saturday and will need a major move forward to make noise against this fine field. The $425,000 son of Constitution has flashed considerable ability on a few occasions, however, and he could be in line for a minor award from off the pace with his best performance under Luis Saez.