Tiz a Slam brings upset chance to Red Smith Stakes

By most metrics #7 Sadler’s Joy is the horse to beat in Saturday’s $200,000 Red Smith Stakes (G3) going 1 3/8 miles over the grass course at Aqueduct.

Sadler’s Joy is certainly the most accomplished competitor. The 6-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy won the 2017 Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) and placed third in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), which clearly demonstrated his ability to compete at the highest level. For the Red Smith he’ll drop to grade 3 company for the first time in 2 1/2 years.

But Sadler’s Joy is also riding a 10-race losing streak dating back to March 2018. He has hit the board plenty of times during this timeframe—second by a neck in the 2019 Sword Dancer and third by a half-length in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) last time out—but he has lost a few races he arguably should have won, partly because he tends to idle when he reaches the front.

I’m hesitant to play Sadler’s Joy at a short price in the Red Smith, especially since he is a late runner facing a large field. If the pace is modest, as is usually the case for long-distance turf races in New York, the pack figures to be congested and traffic issues could be plentiful.

Such a scenario could favor the frontrunning #1 Tiz a Slam. Although he finished fourth in the Northern Dancer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine two months ago, he was facing unusual race dynamics after a longshot ran off to lead by a dozen lengths with fast fractions. Despite this tricky trip, Tiz a Slam ultimately finished just 2 3/4 lengths behind the globetrotting Group 1 winner Old Persian.

Previously, Tiz a Slam used his speed to win three straight 1 1/2-mile graded stakes races in gate-to-wire fashion. Although much of his success has come over the huge turf course at Woodbine, Tiz a Slam successfully handled a tighter configuration in the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs earlier this year. The Red Smith will take place over a similar course, and Tiz a Slam figures to set the pace after a break from the rail. As long as no one applies too much pressure early on, Tiz a Slam can vie for victory.

Since Tiz a Slam is 8-1 on the morning line, let’s bet him to win and play him on top of the exacta with Sadler’s Joy, #2 Petit Fils and #4 Marzo underneath.

$20 to win on #1 Tiz a Slam $4 exacta: 1 with 7 $3 exacta: 1 with 2,4 ($6)

Good luck!