Top five questions of 2024 Breeders’ Cup: A Classic for the ages?

By definition, all nine of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races pose questions. Yet some are more compelling than others, given the historic stakes involved and the hopes of a spectacle that will live long in racing’s collective memory.

Here’s my idea of the five most pressing questions to be answered at Del Mar on Saturday:

1. Classic: One for the ages?

The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) question could have been phrased in all sorts of ways. Pick your favorite angle: City of Troy as the latest Ballydoyle turf star to attempt the dirt, Fierceness’s bid to become the first to turn the Juvenile (G1)/Classic double, Forever Young’s leading the Japanese contenders, marathon star Next’s chance on the big stage. 

To look at the whole picture, all of those point to the greater possibilities of the Classic turning out to be a race for the ages. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but my instinct is that this renewal will produce a champion who stands the test of time. 

2. Distaff: Is Thorpedo Anna still the grizzly?

Following the retirement of reigning Distaff (G1) champion Idiomatic, leading three-year-old filly Thorpedo Anna became the lopsided favorite. Yet is she a slam dunk in her first start against elders?

Thorpedo Anna has the star power in a field largely bereft of it, with the exception of unbeaten Japanese filly Awesome Result. And Thorpedo Anna has continued to train forwardly for Ken McPeek, who reiterated his famous description of her as a “grizzly.”

My hesitation is that her workmanlike Cotillion (G1) victory might have been a hint that her preceding start, a tough beat against Fierceness in the Travers (G1), left its mark. To be fair, she overcame a terribly disadvantageous trip in the Cotillion, and she’s had time to freshen up again. Still, it’s not easy to maintain pitch-perfect form for the duration of an Eclipse-worthy campaign.

Another unknown variable is the presence of Alice Verite, hitherto a turf performer in Japan known for being a tear-away pacesetter. Will she show the same exuberant speed in her dirt debut and alter the race shape?

3. Mile: Will Notable Speech make history?

Notable Speech will try to give Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby a fourth consecutive win in the Mile (G1) with four different horses. Space Blues (2021), Modern Games (2022), and Master of The Seas (2023) are likewise by Dubawi, who is currently tied with Nureyev, Danzig, and Anabaa for the most Mile wins as a sire. 

Aside from the plaudit for his sire and connections, Notable Speech could make history for himself personally. No horse has turned the 2000 Guineas (G1)/Mile double, although a couple have gone close. Guineas star Rock of Gibraltar was unlucky in the 2002 Mile, and Master of The Seas barely missed in the 2021 Guineas before blossoming as an older horse.

Different aptitudes come into play for excelling over Newmarket’s undulating Rowley Mile and the typically frenetic two-turn Miles at Breeders’ Cup host sites. Notable Speech might have better claims than most since he’s an atypical Guineas winner who started out on Kempton’s turning all-weather track. On the other hand, a few of his rivals could be even better suited to the conditions at Del Mar. 

4. Turf: Will Rebel’s Romance regain his crown?

Team Godolphin has another shot at a unique achievement with Rebel’s Romance in the Turf (G1). Only two horses have won the Turf twice — High Chaparral (2002 and 2003, the latter in a dead heat) and Conduit (2008-09). Rebel’s Romance can join them by regaining the title he earned back in 2022 while furnishing a twist of his own in non-consecutive years.

Two years ago, Rebel’s Romance was just reinventing himself as a turf horse after disappointing on the dirt at the Dubai Carnival. A frustrating series of events blighted his 2023 campaign, and he didn’t defend his title at the Breeders’ Cup.

Rebel’s Romance has been better than ever this term, making him the favorite against such classy veterans as Luxembourg and Emily Upjohn. They loom as threats if they’re able to recapture the glory at this stage of life. 

5. Filly & Mare Turf: Will War Like Goddess get her elusive trophy?

Who would have thought that three years after War Like Goddess was upset in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1), she’d be back again as the favorite at the age of seven, still searching for a trophy? The Bill Mott mare suffered a heartbreaker at Del Mar that day when a better-timed move may have made the difference. Japan’s Loves Only You nabbed her late, as did My Sister Nat, to relegate her to third.

War Like Goddess has been a reliable campaigner every year, not just in her own division but versus males as well. A two-time winner of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), she almost turned a three-peat until run down by Far Bridge last time out. 

The past two years, War Like Goddess had to take on males in the Breeders’ Cup because the Filly & Mare Turf editions at Keeneland and Santa Anita, respectively, were too short for her. The daughter of 2007 Turf champion English Channel is a true long-distance type who needs upward of 1 3/8 miles to be most effective. 

Now War Like Goddess gets her distance and presumably a solid pace to set up her late kick. It’s probably now or never for her unless she can defy time and somehow come back next year at eight.