Top picks, price plays for 2024 Hong Kong International Races

If it might not pay to get too creative with top picks for the Hong Kong International Races late Saturday night, there’s ample scope for the imagination in potential price plays and exotics longshots at Sha Tin.

More contender analysis is available in the trends and storylines pieces for each of the four Group 1s as well – the Hong Kong Vase (G1), Sprint (G1), Mile (G1), and Cup (G1).

Race 4: Hong Kong Vase (G1), 1:10 a.m. ET

Instead of going around in circles trying to parse a well-matched bunch of older males, the more compelling option is to go with the high-class Japanese three-year-old filly #13 Stellenbosch (4-1).  

Judging by the international ratings, her nine-pound advantage at the weights looks decisive. But form extrapolation and the likely race shape reinforce the idea. As the close second in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) to Cervinia, Stellenbosch has a key form tie-in to the much deeper Japan Cup (G1). She was most recently third behind Cervinia in the final fillies’ classic, the Shuka Sho (G1), but with a less charmed passage in the stretch.

The pace figures to be modest in the about 1 1/2-mile Vase, a scenario that theoretically would undermine the thoroughgoing stayers. Considering that Stellenbosch had the finishing speed to win a classic over a metric mile, the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1), a sit-sprint could play to her strengths. Joao Moreira, who timed her run well in that signature win, rides her back for the first time here. 

#4 Dubai Honour (13-2) might be the value play since he checks several proverbial boxes for William Haggas. The globetrotting veteran passes the class check as a three-time Group 1 hero. But he also eliminates a couple of other variables: he’s acted around this course in the past, going shorter, and he arrives in good form off a troubled but fast-finishing second at Newcastle. 

I’m constitutionally incapable of leaving Aidan O’Brien out of the equation, although both of the Ballydoyle runners arrive with form questions to answer. Still, I can’t get past the giant price on #9 Continuous (35-1), who was a 21-1 chance when he was badly hampered in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) two back. His odds seem disproportionate vis-à-vis stablemate #3 Luxembourg (17-2), especially since Continuous is at least as deserving of “jury nullification,” so to speak, for his recent losses. 

Race 5: Hong Kong Sprint (G1), 1:50 a.m. ET

For any contrarians out there trying to poke holes in #1 Ka Ying Rising (2-5), there’s a negative stat regarding his draw: no horse has won this about six-furlong dash from post 11. But that’s likelier to be a red herring than actionable intelligence. Indeed, three winners have come from even wider posts, and the latest Hong Kong sensation should be able to work out a trip with Zac Purton.

As the next-best option, I keep coming back to #2 California Spangle (17-1) as the personification of established class. The rub is that two of his three Group 1 laurels have come at longer trips, famously in the 2022 Hong Kong Mile (G1) over Golden Sixty. His marquee win at this distance came down the straightaway in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) on Dubai World Cup night. Yet the Tony Cruz trainee first rose through the ranks as a course-and-distance performer before the allurements of Hong Kong’s Four-Year-Old Series prompted a stretch-out a couple of years ago. 

Like the rest of the home team, California Spangle was brushed aside by Ka Ying Rising in the preps, but he was carrying considerably more weight. California Spangle was lugging 135 and 128 pounds, respectively, and dropping down to level weights should help his chances of finishing closer.

The Japanese contingent obviously warrants respect, and I wouldn’t put it past #9 Satono Reve (21-1) to turn the Sprinters (G1) form upside down. But if you’d like a bigger longshot stab for the exotics, #10 Recommendation (53-1) could be overpriced even as a lesser representative of the ultra-tough Australian sprint division.

Race 7: Hong Kong Mile (G1), 3 a.m. ET

In this open-looking renewal, #6 Galaxy Patch (13-2) can do double-duty as a top selection and a price play if his morning-line odds hold. Post 14 might help to keep his odds in value territory, but a wide draw isn’t necessarily a hindrance, especially for a horse expected to drop back early. With the endorsement of jockey Vincent Ho, the regular rider of three-time Hong Kong Mile legend Golden Sixty, Galaxy Patch is bound to earn his first Group 1 title sooner rather than later. Tactics were blamed for his third to #2 Voyage Bubble (9-2) in the latest prep, and we’re eligible to see something more like his slashing Sha Tin Trophy (G2). 

Depending upon how the market unfolds, #12 Jantar Mantar (6-1) could end up as a better price than Galaxy Patch. Last year’s Japanese champion two-year-old colt was a close third in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) in record time, and he prospered by reverting in trip for the NHK Mile Cup (G1). If not for the layoff since May 5, I would have been tempted to make him the top pick. That’s not to neglect the chances of compatriot #1 Soul Rush (4-1), but as in the case of Hong Kong’s own Voyage Bubble, his odds aren’t as enticing in a very competitive race.

Race 8: Hong Kong Cup (G1), 3:40 a.m. ET

Can anyone disrupt the most logical exacta or trifecta? Three-peat-seeking #1 Romantic Warrior (1-2) won’t be easy to dethrone on his home court, particularly since his build-up resembles 2022 rather than his scraping-in of 2023. Star Japanese filly #9 Liberty Island (5-1) is the most persuasive alternative, in the expectation that she’s back in her championship form of old. Fellow Japanese champion #4 Tastiera (11-1) likewise has an attractive profile for high-percentage trainer Noriyuki Hori. 

If #11 Wingspan (13-1) has to buck trends in this race as a three-year-old filly, her tactical speed from an inside draw (post 3) could help her punch above her weight. The O’Brien trainee can be dangerous on the lead, as illustrated by her near-miss in the Blandford (G2) on Irish Champions Weekend and her runner-up effort to Juddmonte’s Kalpana in the British Champions Fillies & Mares (G1). More use might have been made of her in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last out, where she checked in fifth, but the cutback in distance ought to help.