Tournament Strategy: TwinSpires $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeders Oct. 7 and 8

TwinSpires has a new handicapping tournament, the TwinSpires $5,000 NHC Qualifier, offering two seats to the National Horseplayers Championship, which will take place Nov. 25. In order to participate, you have to finish in the top 10% of one of the seven feeder tournaments, and there are two taking place this weekend. If you have a TwinSpires account, opt in to play on Oct. 7 or Oct. 8, 2023.

Format

If your strong suit as a handicapper is picking winners, regardless of price, then this is the tournament for you. The vast majority of NHC qualifying tournaments have either a mythical $2 win/place or live-money format.

TwinSpires' $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeders are different. It doesn't matter the odds of the horse you like — if your horse wins, you get 100 points. If your horse finishes second, you get 50 points; third, you get 25 points. There’s little chance of doing well if your top pick continually comes in second and third. Scoring emphasis is placed on picking winners and knowing this should be at the center of your strategy.

RELATED: Betting Longshots to Turn the Tables on Favorites

Strategy

Whereas divergence and long odds are the keys to winning mythical $2 win/place tournaments, you want to employ the opposite strategy in TwinSpires' $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeders.

Take a look at the top 50 scores from last Saturday’s feeder and you’ll see the range is from 525 to 725. Tenth place scored 650 points. To succeed in these tournaments, you will need to move with the crowd, not against them, and simply aim to be a touch sharper in a couple of races.

So, what will the crowd do? What they always do — pick favorites.

Statistically, favorites win 38% of the time, place 60% of the time, and show 72% of the time. Four favorites should win on an 11-race card (38% of 11), as we have Saturday at Keeneland, and those four will most likely be included on the ticket of whoever ends up winning. You want to have those four horses. It would also behoove you to have the likely four favorites who will place or show. If you do, you’ll have around 550 points and would likely need to be right on only one of the other two races to ensure a spot in the qualifier; though 550 points could be enough.

Picking Your Spots

Many public handicappers approach their picks in this way: Handicap the most likely winner and make them the top selection. You want to be in this mindset as you approach these tournaments. However, you still need to find the races where your handicapping will shine and you can separate from the crowd.

Move with the crowd through the seemingly obvious races and get the same points that they do. In races that seem more wide open, that is where you want to do your sharpest handicapping and look to go out on a limb a little bit, assuming you can find a horse that you like.

First thing I would do is assess which races have the most clear-cut favorites. You like the horse, the public handicappers like the horse, and your sister’s father-in-law’s brother’s dumb cousin likes the horse. Find the horses that everyone will be on, but also watch the tote board ahead of every race and use the market as signal.

On Saturday at Keeneland, there are at least seven races that the vast majority will be using one of two horses. Here they are:

Race 4: #1 Willakia (7-2) or #5 Saffron Moon (5-2)

Race 5: #3 Alder (2-1) or #4 Valentine Candy (3-1)

Race 6: #2 Live In The Dream (IRE) (3-1) or #1 Bad Beat Brian (6-1)

Race 7: #1 Wicked Halo (5-2) or #6 Yuugiri (2-1)

Race 8: #2 Whitebeam (3-1) or #3 In Italian (4-5)

Race 9: #2 Timberlake or #9 Locked (7-5)

Race 10: #1 Master of The Seas (2-1) or #5 Up to the Mark (5-2)

Let the tote board be your guide and take the favorite in the win pools, or choose one of these two you like best in these races, and you’ll have a strong chance of being in contention to finish in the top 10%.

In Race 1-3 and Race 11, if you don’t have a strong handicapping opinion, I would strongly recommend using a horse that you like that is taking live money in the win pool. If you do have a strong opinion, play it.

A sound strategy is what has the best chance of working over time, meaning over multiple iterations. Including the feeder this weekend, you have six more chances to win a spot in November's qualifier. You don’t need to win the feeder, simply finish in the top 10%.

Barring a spate of longshots — which goes against the statistical averages of how favorites perform at race tracks across the country — if you employ this approach, you are giving yourself the best shot at being one step closer to the NHC.