Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $1,000 Presque Isle Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Aug. 27, at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $1,000 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: maiden special weight (one mile on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

One week ago, trainer Jeff Engler sent out his first starter of the Horseshoe Indianapolis meet. That was Saratoga Cruiser, an unraced two-year-old who rallied to win his debut in a one-mile maiden special weight.

Saratoga Cruiser had put together a decent slate of pre-debut workouts, but they pale in comparison to the tab compiled by Engler’s unraced juvenile filly #6 Coop Shoop (9-2). All five of her workouts have been bullet exercises, including a half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5.

Like Saratoga Cruiser, Coop Shoop is slated to be ridden by Deshawn Parker. She looks ready to emulate her stablemate with a debut victory racing one mile, so let’s bet Coop Shoop to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Coop Shoop (9-2)
• #1 Deloraine (7-2)
• #5 My Sweet Love (8-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Coop Shoop
• $10 Double: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#5 Ahandfulofcandy (9-5) exits a third-place finish in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs lawn. The winner, Herchee, flattered that form by returning to win a one-mile turf allowance at Ellis Park.

Ahandfulofcandy should find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where trainer Brad Cox has won at a 22% rate this year. Let’s single Ahandfulofcandy to conclude our double wager, then bet him over #4 Redemption Speight (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Ahandfulofcandy (9-5)
• #4 Redemption Speight (5-2)
• #1 Speed Institute (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 4

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#2 He Knows We Know (1-1) owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field. He posted a 67 when finishing second in his debut sprinting five furlongs over this track and class level, then threw down a 63 when third in the six-furlong CTHS S. at Assiniboia.

None of He Knows We Know’s Tuesday rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 60. Dropping back down into the maiden ranks should make He Knows We Know difficult to defeat, so let’s key him over #7 Princeoftheprairie (3-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 He Knows We Know (1-1)
• #7 Princeoftheprairie (3-1)
• #4 Twolefttoload (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 7

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,000 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

No one hit the 50-cent Late Pick 5 on Monday at Presque Isle Downs, triggering a nice and round carryover worth $1,000 for Tuesday’s card. Well, $1,000.09, if we’re being exact.

The five-race sequence features 41 horses (averaging 8.2 per race) and 36,288 possible outcomes before scratches. You’ll want to think through each race carefully before choosing which horses to include; otherwise ticket costs could quickly balloon.

The good news is, there’s a viable single in race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds racing one mile on Tapeta. Although the horse we’re about to recommend is the slight morning-line favorite, he’s not an obvious standout at first glance — he’s actually coming off the poorest finish of any horse in the field.

How can a horse like this be a single? It’s all about the competition. 

Eight of the nine horses entered in race 6 have already lost against maiden special weight company at Presque Isle Downs, and none of them have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 66, which is four points lower than the par winning number (70) for Tuesday’s conditions.

That’s why we’re so keen to support #2 Missionary Man (3-1). He’s the only newcomer to the Presque Isle Downs scene, having debuted with a ninth-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on turf at Ellis Park. The competition tends to be tougher at Ellis, so Missionary Man is arguably dropping in class at Presque Isle.

That’s reflected by the fact Missionary Man earned a 72 Brisnet Speed rating in his debut. If he can replicate that number at Presque Isle, he’ll be tough to beat.

Cementing Missionary Man as a standout are powerful trainer and jockey stats. Trainer Riley Mott has compiled a terrific 8-for-13 (62%) record at Presque Isle this meet, while jockey Antonio Gallardo has gone 57-for-186 (31%). Together over the last two months, they’ve been almost unstoppable, going 5-for-7 (71%).

For all these reasons, we recommend building your tickets around Missionary Man as a trustworthy single.

Good luck!