Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $22,915 Fair Grounds Pick 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Feb. 13 at Turf Paradise and Fair Grounds, including analysis of the $22,915 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of February.
• $2,000 Fair Grounds Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any Saturday in February (also Tuesday, Feb. 13) to win your share of a $2,000 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:06 p.m. ET)

#2 South Coast Route (8-5) has hit the board in five straight starts against tougher competition, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 83, 83, 79, 72, and 76. He recently kicked off 2024 with a third-place finish in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile at Turf Paradise.

South Coast Route has done his best work sprinting and should appreciate cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs for an $8,500 maiden claimer. Throw in the fact jockey Luis Negron and trainer Justin Evans have won at a 45% rate teaming up together over the last two months, and South Coast Route is an easy choice to win Tuesday’s contest.

Let’s bet South Coast Route on top of a cold exacta over Southern California raider #1 Bluegrass Ryder (4-1).

Selections

• #2 South Coast Route (8-5)
• #1 Bluegrass Ryder (4-1)
• #5 Ranger Joe (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 1

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Doncho (8-5) was tons the best when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds, carving out the pace before kicking clear to win by five lengths. The resulting 95 Brisnet Speed rating is the highest number belonging to any horse in Tuesday’s field.

Let’s single Doncho to start a double wager, then key him over the stakes-placed #7 Agoo (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Doncho (8-5)
• #7 Agoo (5-2)
• #1 Quarrymen (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 6 with 3
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 7
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Mardi Gras S. (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

Whether this sprint stakes stays on grass or gets rained off the turf, #3 Ova Charged (4-1) should be formidable. The six-year-old mare is 10-for-13 lifetime and enters off back-to-back stakes wins at Fair Grounds, most recently winning the six-furlong Bob F. Wright Memorial S. for Louisiana-breds by 6 3/4 lengths over a next-out winner.

Ova Charged brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and dominated her lone turf start (the 5 1/2-furlong Page Cortez S. at Fair Grounds) by seven lengths, so we’ll bet the daughter of Star Guitar to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #3 Ova Charged (4-1)
• #7 Oeuvre (3-1)
• #6 Poppy Flower (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Ova Charged

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $22,915 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

It’s been days since anyone managed to assemble a winning ticket for the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds, which means the non-jackpot carryover has climbed to a hefty $22,915 for Tuesday’s Mardi Gras card.

It’s important to note Fair Grounds was off the turf on Monday, so there’s a chance Tuesday’s grass races will be transferred to dirt as well.

That includes Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6. It’s a $10,000 starter optional claimer for older horses racing about 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, and while we’ll have to see race-day changes before making any definitive selections, #3 Optimal Courage (9-2) looks like a viable contender regardless of surface. He was tons the best in a $10,000 starter optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds last month, leading all the way to win by 5 1/4 lengths, but he’s also 6-for-12 on turf and has earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings on both surfaces.

Race 5 is an $80,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. #3 Marsalis (6-5) posted a flashy 100 Brisnet Speed rating when winning a race over this distance and class level at Saratoga last August, but he hasn’t run since. #5 Kavod (7-2), a determined winner of an $80,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds last month, is a logical backup choice.

Race 6 is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Again, a surface switch could change the complexion of this contest. #10 Linzer (5-2) has run well on dirt, turf, and synthetic, so we know he has the versatility to factor regardless of surface. He also brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and crossed the wire first in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Fair Grounds turf last month, only to be disqualified to second place. The one problem? Linzer is on the also-eligible list and needs a scratch in order to draw in. Hopefully he finds his way into field; depending on race-day changes, he could be a viable single.

In Race 7, #6 Doncho (8-5) and #7 Agoo (5-2) look like the best two as outlined above, and bettors playing on small budgets can consider singling Doncho. Race 8 is the Mardi Gras where we’re keen to back #3 Ova Charged (4-1), perhaps with #7 Oeuvre (3-1) and #6 Poppy Flower (5-1) mixed in if the race stays on turf.

The Pick 6 wraps up with Race 9, a 1 1/16-mile dirt maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. #5 Mischievousness (9-2) and #2 Pretty Ana (2-1), second and third over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 18, are the two morning line favorites. Of the pair, we slightly prefer the second-time starter Pretty Ana. But don’t overlook #9 Montclair Road (6-1), who has run slightly faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale. She exits a deep maiden special weight over the Fair Grounds turf course and may vie for victory while returning to dirt.

Good luck!