Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 4-1 shot at Turf Paradise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Nov. 19 at Finger Lakes, Mahoning Valley, and Turf Paradise, including analysis of the $1,288 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at your most wagered track each Tuesday in November.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 12:20 p.m. ET)

#6 Stars N Stones (1-2) has cracked the trifecta in four straight starts over this track and class level, most recently finishing second by a head while earning a career-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other horses entered in the Finger Lakes opener have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80, so Stars N Stones looms as the horse to beat for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Keiber Coa and Anthony Ferraro, who have teamed up to win at a 25% rate over the last two months.

Let’s bet Stars N Stones on top of #3 Profitability (4-1) and #4 Sharp Play Boy (5-1) in the trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Stars N Stones (1-2)
• #3 Profitability (4-1)
• #4 Sharp Play Boy (5-1)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 3,4 ($20)

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:40 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much speed entered in this field of fillies and mares, so we’ll throw our support behind #2 Quick Recovery (5-2). Two starts back, she carved out the pace in a $6,250 maiden claimer at Delaware Park before staying on to finish second by two lengths.

Quick Recovery didn’t get off to the best start in a $7,500 maiden claimer at Mahoning Valley last time out, but she nevertheless rallied from midfield to finish third. A clean break on Tuesday should allow Quick Recovery to return to pacesetting tactics under hot jockey Gaddiel Martinez, and that may lead to victory.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Quick Recovery (5-2)
• #1 Margaret’s Lady (2-1)
• #8 Lime Tree (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Quick Recovery

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Prisoner (4-1) finished behind #2 Welton (4-1) when second by 1 1/4 lengths in a $25,000 claimer at Emerald Downs two starts back. But Prisoner stayed close to fast early fractions of :21.51 and :43.85 while Welton rallied from last place by as many as 10 1/2 lengths.

An easier pace setup on Tuesday may allow Prisoner to turn the tables on Welton for hot trainer Justin Evans, a 21% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. Let’s try betting Prisoner to win.

Selections

• #5 Prisoner (4-1)
• #4 B Minor (3-1)
• #2 Welton (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Prisoner

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,288 Pick 6 carryover (1:16 p.m. ET)

Want to win a share of Tuesday’s $1,288 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes? You’ll have to solve a challenging sequence.

The six races have all drawn large fields. Each contains at least eight horses, and five of them drew 10 or more horses. All told, the sequence contains 59 horses (averaging about 9.8 per race) and 880,000 possible outcomes before scratches.

Fortunately, formidable favorites in the middle of the Pick 6 stand to simplify the ticket assembling process.

The first is #3 Emerald Bay (5-2) in Race 5, a six-furlong $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since Jan. 19. Emerald Bay might be 0-for-10 this year, but the six-year-old gelding has competed exclusively against tougher competition and brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table.

Indeed, Emerald Bay’s last three numbers—77, 75, and 78—all match or exceed the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (75) for Tuesday’s conditions. He posted the 78 when rallying to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths in an $11,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Finger Lakes last time out.

Dropping down into a $5,000 claimer should make Emerald Forest tough to beat. Bettors with large budgets might want to include #7 Gimmedamoney (7-2) for good measure; he finished second over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 5. But if you want to limit your investment, Emerald Bay is a potential single.

Race 6, a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies, features a logical favorite in the form of #2 Lipan Law (5-2). The daughter of Belmont (G1) winner Tiz the Law hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts sprinting against maiden special weight competition at Finger Lakes, most recently finishing second by one length with a 64 Brisnet Speed rating.

Lipan Law has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns, and she’s already defeated key rivals #5 Freedom Dreams (4-1) and #9 Liliths Moon (10-1), so the stage is set for Lipan Law to deliver victory as a Pick 6 single. It helps that she has the hot jockey/trainer duo of Keiber Coa and Anthony Ferraro in her corner.

Good luck!