Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 6-1 shots at Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 2 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Thistledown, along with horses to single in the $6,024 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Bourbon Curiosity (6-1) hails from the red-hot barn of Miguel Silva, who has compiled a 10-4-3-1 record at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. That 40% wins and 80% in-the-money.

Bourbon Curiosity has posted some quick workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet three furlongs in :35 3/5 and half a mile from the starting gate in :48 4/5. He looks ready to vie for victory on debut, and his 6-1 morning line odds are enticing, so let’s place a win bet on Bourbon Curiosity.

Selections

• #3 Bourbon Curiosity (6-1)
• #1 Ismybusiness (9-2)
• #5 Sir Bahjy (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Bourbon Curiosity

Thistledown: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Spectacular d’Oro (2-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of hot trainer David Wolochuk, who wins at a stellar 47% rate with debuting runners. With that lofty win percentage in mind, Spectacular d’Oro appears overpriced at his 2-1 morning line odds.

That’s especially true when you consider how Spectacular d’Oro has posted sharp workouts, including a near-bullet half-mile from the Thistledown starting gate in :47 1/5. Throw in the fact he’s a son of Bolt d’Oro (who sires 17% winners from first-time starters), and Spectacular d’Oro looks like a great win play.

We’ll also bet an exacta using #5 A Van On the Run (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Spectacular d’Oro (2-1)
• #5 A Van On the Run (5-2)
• #3 El Sordo (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Spectacular d’Oro
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $35

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Mission Improbable (6-1) didn’t show much in his debut sprinting five furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. A troubled start left him more than a dozen lengths off the early pace, and he failed to gain much ground while finishing ninth.

For his second start, Mission Improbable will switch to dirt, add blinkers, and stretch out in distance. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 30% rate with second-time starters, and at a 23% rate with horses running long for the first time, so there are reasons to believe Mission Improbable can improve sharply on Tuesday.

At 6-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Mission Improbable (6-1)
• #7 Sergeant Capps (3-1)
• #3 Vehemently (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Mission Improbable (6-1)

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $6,024 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The ever-elusive $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes went unsolved on Monday, triggering a $6,024 carryover into Tuesday’s card.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of singles to build tickets around:

Race 5: #6 Grace Reformed (5-2)

Grace Reformed wasn’t having much success competing at Delaware Park, Parx Racing, and Aqueduct. While she won a $20,000 maiden claimer at Delaware last September, she subsequently lost seven consecutive races at a variety of class levels ranging from $32,000 claimers to a $50,000 starter optional claimer.

But when Grace Reformed took her game to Finger Lakes for a June 4 allowance for non-winners of two races, she delivered an impressive victory. After rating behind a slow pace, she seized command and powered clear to win the one-mile and 70-yard contest by 5 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Grace Reformed is sticking to Finger Lakes for Tuesday’s fifth race, a one-mile and 70-yard allowance for non-winners of three races. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 79, so Grace Reformed is fast enough to shine while stepping up slightly in class. Her most serious rival from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, the stretch-running sprinter #2 Dorothy’s Dreams (5-1), faltered in her lone start beyond six furlongs, so Grace Reformed looms as a logical Pick 6 single.

Race 8: #6 Isle Storm (3-1)

This 5 1/2-furlong $11,000 claimer for fillies and mares looks ripe for conquest by Isle Storm. Sure, she’s finished second in four straight starts over this track and class level, and normally we would hesitate to recommend a horse who suffers from acute “second-itis.”

But Isle Storm has posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 78 in her last two starts, and those numbers look solid against Tuesday’s field. None of her rivals have posted a number higher than 75 this year, and several of them are stepping up in class. The few who aren’t—#2 Stimulus Check (4-1), #4 Sweet Shallots (10-1), and #8 Curl Talk (6-1)—have all been defeated recently by Isle Storm.

In other words, Isle Storm appears to have found the perfect spot to snatch a breakthrough victory. We’ll single her to conclude the Pick 6.

Good luck!