Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 longshot at Zia

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 19 at Mahoning Valley and Zia Park, including a $25 cold exacta.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points at Zia Park: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Zia Park on Mondays and Tuesdays through Dec. 19.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Romanian Prince (2-1) and #7 Gunner Gabriel (9-5) were separated by 1 1/2 lengths when finishing second and third over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 16. Based on this outcome, Romanian Prince might seem more likely to visit the winner’s circle on Tuesday.

But Romanian Prince has cracked the trifecta in five straight starts over this class level without winning, whereas the Nov. 16 contest marked Gunner Gabriel’s debut. Gunner Gabriel is trained by Jason DaCosta, who wins at a terrific 36% rate with second-time starters, so there’s a strong chance Gunner Gabriel will move forward in his second try and turn the tables on Gunner Gabriel.

We’ll play the exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #7 Gunner Gabriel (9-5)
• #4 Romanian Prince (2-1)
• #6 Atlas Falls (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 7 with 4

Zia Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#7 Raspberry Wine (8-1) showed early speed when breaking from the rail in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level on Nov. 28. Unfortunately, she had to steady early on and got shuffled back to sixth place. When she tried to re-rally along the rail, she got shut off again and wound up finishing fourth by 5 1/2 lengths.

Raspberry Wine has drawn an outside post for her second start, setting the stage for a clean trip and potentially significant improvement. Let’s bet her to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #7 Raspberry Wine (8-1)
• #5 Ize a Blast (5-2)
• #6 Ogallala (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Raspberry Wine

Zia Park: Race 6: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Silver Abstract (5-2) is easily the fastest horse in this field from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a number higher than 55, Silver Abstract threw down a 63 when finishing third in her debut against maiden special weight competition and a 60 when second by a head over this track, distance, and class level last month.

Silver Abstract was favored at 11-10 to win that $15,000 maiden claimer, and sticking to the same conditions should make her tough to beat on Tuesday. Keep in mind, trainer Danny Morales wins at a 36% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start.

We doubt Silver Abstract’s enticing 5-2 morning line odds will hold up, so let’s key her over #3 Swaying Lassie (9-2) and #12 Sweet But Fierce (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Silver Abstract (5-2)
• #3 Swaying Lassie (9-2)
• #12 Sweet But Fierce (10-1)

Wagers

• $16 Exacta: 1 with 3
• $9 Exacta: 1 with 12
  Total: $25

Good luck!