Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: A pair of 4-1 shots

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, June 11 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs, including a horse to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle.

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• Assiniboia Downs 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to 25% per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Assiniboia Downs every Monday through Wednesday in June.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Aaron West wins at a 20% rate with first-time starters, so we’re keen to back West’s unraced two-year-old #6 Small Town Accent (5-2). The daughter of Mineshaft is a half-sister to three stakes winners and several winning juveniles, including Holiday Magic, who took the Brave Raj S. at age two.

Small Town Accent has put together a decent work tab highlighted by half a mile in :48 4/5, so she looks ready to win on debut under jockey Samuel Bermudez, a 21% winner teaming up with West over the last two months. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Small Town Accent (5-2)
• #2 Twisted Tiara (12-1)
• #4 Hot Middles (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Small Town Accent

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Big City Heat (4-1) hit the board in seven of his eight starts against maiden special weight company at Horseshoe Indianapolis last year. He’s run pretty much as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as heavy morning line favorite #7 Specialty Act (1-1), so we’re willing to bet Big City Heat can spring a mild surprise while dropping in class for his three-year-old debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Big City Heat, then key him over Specialty Act in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Big City Heat (4-1)
• #7 Specialty Act (1-1)
• #6 Reiteration (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Big City Heat (4-1)
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $25

Presque Isle Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:09 p.m. ET)

#6 R Chello (4-1) was beaten nine lengths when debuting with a runner-up finish sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level. But the winner, Midnight Dajoey, won in a fast time and looks like a possible stakes horse in the making.

R Chello posted six straight bullet workouts in preparation for his debut, and assuming he doesn’t run into another monster like Midnight Dajoey this Tuesday, he can graduate second-time out for hot trainer Eduardo Rojas.

Selections

• #6 R Chello (4-1)
• #10 Atrocious (3-1)
• #8 Multitask (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #6 R Chello

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,597 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,575 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

Every day, Presque Isle Downs offers a pair of 50-cent Pick 5 wagers. Both went unsolved on Monday, triggering carryovers worth $1,597 (Early Pick 5) and $2,575 (Late Pick 5) for Tuesday’s card.

There’s some overlap between the sequences. Both Pick 5s encompass Race 4 and Race 5, so those are the two most important races to handicap if you wish to pursue both carryovers. If you miss the winner in either race, you won’t hit either Pick 5.

Fortunately, Race 4 looks pretty straightforward. It’s a $6,250 claimer for horses who have never won two races, and in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, morning line favorite #3 Rock With You (9-5) is a standout.

When we say “standout,” we mean both overall and recently. Rock With You’s career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating is six points higher than the next-highest career-best number in the seven-horse field. And his last four Brisnet Speed ratings—83, 70, 74, and 76—are impressive since none of his Tuesday rivals have posted a number higher than 71 within the last year.

Rock With You has done his best work over Tapeta, most notably wiring a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway Park last December by 3 3/4 lengths. And he ran well when making his Presque Isle debut in a $5,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on May 20, carving out the pace before succumbing in the final furlong to finish second by half a length. Not bad for his first race in three months.

Rock With You was claimed out of that contest by hot trainer Eduardo Rojas, a 26% winner with horses running back for the first time following a claim. If Rock With You improves at all in his first start for Rojas, he’s going to be mighty tough to defeat.

For all these reasons, we recommend singling Rock With You in both Pick 5 wagers. As risky as that strategy might sound, Rock With You looks up to the task, and having a single in both Pick 5s will make assembling competitive tickets more affordable.

Good luck!