Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryover at Mountaineer

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Nov. 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a ticket for the $3,687 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at your most wagered track each Tuesday in November.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#4 One Improbable (2-1) broke slowly in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland turf course, ultimately finishing seventh by six lengths. It wasn’t an eye-catching effort at first glance, but it yielded a 73 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Tuesday’s field.

Squaring off against easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis can send One Improbable to the winner’s circle, especially if he breaks better. Let’s single him to start double and Pick 3 wagers.

Selections

• #4 One Improbable (2-1)
• #6 Corman (3-1)
• #10 Oh Please (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 4 with 8
• $10 Pick 3: 4 with 8 with 4
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#8 Night Kiss (9-5) has been riding a hot streak at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She’s won three of her last four starts sprinting six furlongs over this track, including a $25,000 starter optional claimer and an allowance with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 84.

Night Kiss likes to close from off the pace, which is fine since this $10,000 starter optional claimer is packed with pace. We’ll single her in our double and Pick 3 wagers.

Selections

• #8 Night Kiss (9-5)
• #2 Chaparrita (5-1)
• #3 Beach Kitten (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 8 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#4 Novara (9-5) might be a 0-for-6 maiden, but she hasn’t finished off the board in five starts against maiden special weight competition on turf. Lately she’s been running well on the Kentucky circuit, finishing third by half a length at Ellis Park and third by 5 3/4 lengths against a next-out winner at Kentucky Downs.

Facing easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis can send Novara to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Brendan Walsh, a 28% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. Let’s bet her to win and single her to conclude our double and Pick 3 wagers.

Selections

• #4 Novara (9-5)
• #11 Queen of the Rodeo (8-1)
• #2 Stay Lost (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Novara

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $3,687 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The Super High 5 went unsolved on Monday at Mountaineer. A 4-5 favorite finished out of the top five while a couple of big longshots finished third and fourth. No one held a winning ticket, generating a $3,687 carryover into Tuesday’s card.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races, West Virginia-bred races excluded. The five-furlong dirt dash drew an overflow field of 14, with a maximum of 10 allowed to start.

Despite the large field size, there isn’t an overabundance of pace, which should lend an advantage to #9 Outfactored (7-2). The three-year-old filly has set the pace in three of her last five starts.

Since transferring to high-percentage trainer Juan Silva, Outfactored has made two starts over this track and class level. She struggled in her first start under Silva’s care on Oct. 15, finishing sixth in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint after dueling for the lead. But she improved dramatically in her second start for Silva on Oct. 28, opening up a daylight lead in a six-furlong contest before weakening late to finish second by half a length.

That narrow defeat yielded a career-best 70 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number recently posted by any horse entered in Race 8. If Outfactored shakes loose up front while cutting back to five furlongs, she may prove impossible to catch under jockey Luis Batista, a 27% winner teaming up with Silva over the last two months.

With this possibility in mind, we recommend keying Outfactored on top in the Super High 5. Underneath, focus on horses like #8 Almond Fudge (5-2), who is dropping in class out of a Mountaineer allowance; #3 Sweet Smila (2-1), who finished three lengths behind Outfactored when third on Oct. 28; #7 Whisper Me a Song (10-1), a trifecta finisher in four of her last five starts over this track and class level; and #2 Princess Tereska (8-1), recently runner-up over this track and class level in her first start off a six-month layoff.

• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 3,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 ($60)

Good luck!