Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $12,158 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, April 30 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including a horse to key in Churchill’s $12,158 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers every Tuesday in April and May.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Churchill Downs from April 27 through May 4.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#7 Hoosier Daddy Now (7-2) endured a troubled start when debuting in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta at Turfway Park, but passed a few rivals down the homestretch to finish sixth by 9 1/2 lengths.

Now Hoosier Daddy Now is switching to dirt and tackling a maiden special weight for horses bred in Indiana. Either change, when coupled with a clean start, could trigger improvement. Plus, Hoosier Daddy Now is changing trainers, adding blinkers, and racing on Lasix for the first time.

Suffice to say, there are lots of reasons to believe Hoosier Daddy Now can move forward on Tuesday, so we’ll bet him to win. 

Selections

• #7 Hoosier Daddy Now (7-2)
• #1 Kneedeepjustice (9-5)
• #6 Magic in Motion (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Hoosier Daddy Now

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/4 miles, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#2 Batten Down (1-1) is a son of three-time leading North American sire Tapit out of the champion filly Close Hatches. This makes him a full-brother to Tacitus, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) and runner-up in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1).

Batten Down has been defeated by narrow margins in his last two starts racing 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/16 miles against maiden special weight competition. He’s bred to thrive while stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, so let’s play him over #1 Bricklayer (5-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Batten Down (1-1)
• #1 Bricklayer (5-1)
• #7 Let’s Bounce (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 Salty Sue (8-5) has early speed and looks like the best of the experienced runners, but her 0-for-10 lifetime record is a cause for pause. Even while dropping in class from a maiden special weight into a $5,000 maiden claimer, she’s a little tough to trust.

Perhaps the first-time starter #3 Ribbons and Lace (7-2) can spring a surprise. She’s turned in a couple of decent workouts this month for trainer Caio Caramori, a 14% winner with horses debuting in maiden claimers. The presence of jockey Oscar Villarreal (who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance) may give Ribbons and Lace the edge she needs to beat Salty Sue.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Ribbons and Lace (7-2)
• #5 Salty Sue (8-5)
• #4 Dressed in Purple (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Ribbons and Lace

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $12,158 Super High 5 carryover (1:43 p.m. ET)

Kentucky Derby week racing at Churchill Downs kicks off on Tuesday with a non-jackpot $12,158 Super High 5 carryover on the table.

The prize pool for the $1 wager is available to pursue in Race 3, a $10,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Eight horses have entered, which works out to 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

The morning line favorite is #2 Sense You Left (5-2), a seven-year-old veteran with nine wins from 34 starts. She brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has cracked the trifecta in four straight allowance optional claiming and starter optional claiming races at the $16,000, $20,000, and $25,000 levels.

But here’s the problem: all nine of Sense You Left’s victories have come in route races. She’s a speed horse accustomed to setting or tracking modest route paces; when she cut back to seven furlongs for a $15,000 starter optional claimer over the Woodbine turf course last fall, she dueled for the lead through quick fractions before fading to finish 10th. Cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs and dealing with a sprint pace might not be ideal for Sense You Left.

We prefer the chances of #1 Condiment Girl (3-1). While she faltered in a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn Park last time out, finishing ninth after pressing the early pace, two starts back she led all the way to trounce a six-furlong $10,000 starter allowance at Oaklawn by 5 3/4 lengths. That runaway victory yielded a flashy 95 Brisnet Speed rating, seven points higher than any number posted by the other seven fillies and mares in Tuesday’s field.

It’s important to note that Condiment Girl’s 95 Brisnet Speed rating didn’t come out of nowhere. In June 2023, one start after wiring a $10,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs by 3 3/4 lengths, Condiment Girl led all the way to dominate a seven-furlong $30,000 claimer at Ellis Park by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a 93 Brisnet Speed rating. Condiment Girl is the fastest horse in Tuesday’s field on her best day, and returning to the $10,000 starter allowance ranks can send her to the winner’s circle in her first start for trainer Rob Atras, a 20% winner with all starters since 2023.

For all these reasons, we recommend keying Condiment Girl on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!