Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial Downs longshots

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Aug. 13, at Colonial Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including analysis of Colonial’s $3,586 Pick 6 carryover.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 4: maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Ready to Rocknroll (10-1) is an unraced two-year-old trained by Arnaud Delacour. Since 2021, Delacour has gone 3-for-7 (43%) debuting juveniles on turf at Colonial Downs.

This stat suggests Read to Rocknroll, a daughter of Bolt d’Oro (13% winners on turf), is overpriced at 10-1. She’s put together a sharp work tab that was highlighted by a pair of bullet half-mile workouts, so let’s try a win bet on Ready to Rocknroll.

Selections

• #3 Ready to Rocknroll (10-1)
• #5 Minnesota Munny (5-1)
• #4 Watering (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Ready to Rocknroll

Colonial Downs: Race 6: maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Nola Boss (8-1) may be capable of outrunning expectations. He’s finished second and fifth in his first two starts against $45,000 maiden-claiming competition on dirt at Laurel Park, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 64 and 62 that stack up well against Tuesday’s field.

Tackling a maiden special weight for Virginia-restricted juveniles should suit Nola Boss just fine. Switching from dirt to turf could also trigger improvement; trainer Brittany Russell (a 32% winner at Colonial Downs this meet) strikes at a 21% rate with horses making the dirt-to-turf transition.

At 8-1, a win bet on Nola Boss is warranted.

Selections

• #6 Nola Boss (8-1)
• #8 Buy Tom a Beer (7-2)
• #3 Stormy Flight (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Nola Boss

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: maiden special weight (one mile on turf, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#9 Over the Ocean (9-2) is a first-time starter from the barn of Jonathan Thomas, a 27% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. Since 2021, Thomas has gone 7-2-3-2 (29%) debuting horses over the Horseshoe Indianapolis lawn, which includes a 3-1-2-0 (33%) tally with horses debuting in turf routes.

These stats bode well for Over the Ocean, who showed some talent when breezing a bullet half-mile from the Ellis Park starting gate in :47 2/5 last month. Over the Ocean is bred top and bottom to excel on turf, and hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 33% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) is named to ride, so all signs suggest a bit debut is in the offing.

We’ll round out our trio of win bets with a $30 ticket on Over the Ocean.

Selections

• #9 Over the Ocean (9-2)
• #6 Hot Wings (5-2)
• #2 Uncle Caesar (15-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Over the Ocean

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $3,586 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 went unsolved at Colonial Downs on Monday, which means Tuesday’s six-race sequence features a non-jackpot $3,586 carryover.

The Pick 6 gets underway in race 4, the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which we favor longshot #3 Ready to Rocknroll (10-1) to take home top honors. But for Pick 6 purposes we recommend using a few others, such as the #5 Minnesota Munny (5-1), #4 Watering (4-1), and even the stretch-running #7 Rocio (7-2).

We feel the same way about race 6, another maiden special weight we analyzed earlier. #6 Nola Boss (8-1) is a compelling price play, but rivals like #8 Buy Tom a Beer (7-2) and #3 Stormy Flight (6-1) are also eligible to factor.

We might be able to play a bit narrower in race 9, a maiden special weight taking place over 1 1/16 miles on turf. 

#12 Oskar Martinez (7-2) finished second over this distance and class level at Laurel Park to start 2024, and since trainer Arnaud Delacour has gone 3-for-8 (38%) saddling first-time starters in turf routes at Colonial Downs since 2021, Oskar Martinez figures to fire another strong shot. But we also want to use #10 Mandatory Meeting (10-1), who hit the board in both of his turf starts against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs and Kentucky Downs last year.

If it’s a single you’re looking for, we recommend looking to race 5, in which #3 Guildenstern (7-5) looks trustworthy as a short-priced favorite.

The race is a $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on turf. These conditions should suit Guildenstern just fine.

Guildenstern started his career with four starts in Ireland, where he broke his maiden racing about seven furlongs on turf at Leopardstown last October. After missing the board in his 2024 debut, the three-year-old gelding transitioned to North America, where he’s placed fourth and fifth in a pair of one-mile turf allowances at Monmouth Park this summer.

Guildenstern beat more rivals than not in both of those contests while earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 76, right around the par-winning number (78) for Tuesday’s conditions. Dropping in class should make Guildenstern tough to beat under jockey Mychel Sanchez, who is winning at a 20% rate this year.

Good luck!