Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Double into the Winnipeg Futurity

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 17 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a single for the $2,415 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer Brad Cox has compiled an epic 11-7-2-0 (64%) record debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Just last week, he sent out Classic Example to win under these conditions.

We’ll count on Cox to secure another win courtesy of #4 Blind Faith (5-2). The stoutly bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was produced by the Tapit mare Actress, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and previously the dam of 1 1/8-mile Withers (G3) winner Hit Show.

This strong pedigree, coupled with Blind Faith’s lengthy work tab, stamps the gray filly as the horse to beat on debut. #2 My Sweet Love (6-5), twice runner-up over this track, distance, and class level, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Blind Faith (5-2)
• #2 My Sweet Love (6-5)
• #1 Presha (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Blind Faith
• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 6: Gold Cup S. (1 1/8 miles on dirt, 10:40 p.m. ET)

#1 Exacting (5-2) has put his speed to good use in two recent route runs at Assiniboia Downs. First he wired a one-mile $15,000 allowance optional claimer. Then he employed pace-tracking tactics to take the 1 1/16-mile Nephrite S. by half a length over #6 Blazing Bo (2-1).

Exacting looms as the lone speed horse in the Gold Cup field, so he’s poised to shake loose on an uncontested lead and maintain his edge over Blazing Bo. Let’s bet Exacting to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Exacting (5-2)
• #6 Blazing Bo (2-1)
• #4 Big Nick (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Exacting
• $10 Double: 1 with 1
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 7: Winnipeg Futurity (six furlongs on dirt, 11:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Gee I’m Foxy (8-5) has won three straight stakes at Assiniboia Downs by at least 2 1/2 lengths. The speedy filly has beaten males in both the Graduation S. and Osiris S., suggesting the Winnipeg Futurity is hers to lose.

Let’s single Gee I’m Foxy to conclude our double wager, then play her over Osiris runner-up #3 Bound for Heaven (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Gee I’m Foxy (8-5)
• #3 Bound for Heaven (3-1)
• #2 Conspiracytheorist (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 3

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,415 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

No one solved the 50-cent Late Pick 5 on Monday at Presque Isle Downs. As a result, the second Presque Isle card of the week features a non-jackpot $2,415 Late Pick 5 carryover.

A tricky sequence is on the agenda. The five races have drawn a total of 48 horses (averaging 9.6 per race), which works out to 71,280 possible Pick 5 outcomes.

The sequence would be even more challenging if not for the six-horse field entered in race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 5. It’s the only race in the sequence with fewer than nine entries before scratches, so budget-conscious bettors looking for a single to build tickets around are advised to focus their attention on this race.

At first glance, race 4 looks competitive despite its small field size. It’s a $25,000 allowance optional claimer for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on Tapeta. The morning-line favorite, #4 On the Shortlist (8-5), looks vulnerable after finishing fifth — behind Tuesday rival #3 Genevieve’s Z Va (8-1) — in her lone start on Tapeta.

But is On the Shortlist actually vulnerable? To the contrary, if you dig deeper she’s a compelling favorite and a logical Pick 5 single.

On the Shortlist consistently posts competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80+ range, including in her lone Tapeta start that came in the one-mile and 70-yard Princess of Sylmar S. for Pennsylvania-breds at Presque Isle in July. On that occasion, On the Shortlist settled behind a slow pace in eighth place before closing some ground to finish fifth, three lengths behind the winner and one length behind pacesetter Genevieve’s Z Va.

There’s a clear path for On the Shortlist to turn the tables in their rematch. Despite the small field, race 4 is packed with speed. In addition to Genevieve’s Z Va, who routinely sets the pace, sprinters #1 Rusty My Brother (3-1) and #2 Lawn Dart (10-1) figure to push the tempo while stretching out in distance and breaking from inside posts.

If a hot pace unfolds, that should play to the strengths of On the Shortlist, who has shown more tractability than the three rivals to her inside. As the leaders (presumably) tire, On the Shortlist can sweep past under hot jockey Tyler Conner and deliver victory.

Good luck!