Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: First-time starter at 7-2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 24 at Presque Isle Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, including a horse to single in Presque Isle’s $1,156 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3 p.m. ET)

#3 Midnight Fame (9-5) might be a 0-for-9 maiden, but many of her defeats have come against maiden special weight competition, including when fourth by 1 1/2 lengths in a six-furlong Presque Isle dash on Sept. 9.

Two starts back, Midnight Fame ran third in a six-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer at Presque Isle, beaten by a pair of next-out winners. Descending to the $15,000 maiden claiming level should make Midnight Fame tough to beat.

#6 Kathlyns Phalanx (5-2), runner-up twice in $15,000 maiden claimers at Presque Isle, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Midnight Fame (9-5)
• #6 Kathlyns Phalanx (5-2)
• #7 Garnet and Gold (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Midnight Fame
• $15 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $40

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Eddie Kenneally has compiled a sharp 3-1-1-1 (33%) record debuting juveniles on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

This angle applies to #7 Josie’s Girl (7-2). The unraced daughter of Bernardini out of Kite Beach is a full-sister to Tarifa, a two-time Grade 2 winner who won her debut at age two, so Josie’s Girl has potential to shine from an early age. She breezed a bullet half-mile in :47 3/5 at Keeneland one week ago and is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #7 Josie’s Girl (7-2)
• #6 Oklahoma Logic (2-1)
• #2 Timeless Love (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Josie’s Girl

Assiniboia Downs: Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 10:40 p.m. ET)

#6 Runtoday (3-1) has won four of his last five starts sprinting at Assiniboia Downs. At one time or another, he’s defeated many of the horses he’ll face on Tuesday. Last time out, he won a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Assiniboia Downs over #3 Jeff Fa Fa (2-1), Tuesday’s morning-line favorite.

Runtoday’s 3-1 morning-line odds are enticing, especially since bettors who opt in to the Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back promotion can receive a refund on a win bet (up to $10) if Runtoday finishes second.

We’ll make our win bet a $20 variety and settle for a partial refund in the event Runtoday finishes second.

Selections

• #6 Runtoday (3-1)
• #3 Jeff Fa Fa (2-1)
• #7 Magic Tiger (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Runtoday

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,156 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Presque Isle Downs was mildly unpredictable. Every winner started at odds of 5.60-1 or less, but seven of the eight betting favorites were defeated. In the end, no one hit the Late Pick 5, which means the 50-cent wager boasts a $1,156 carryover for Tuesday.

Another tricky set of results may be in the offing. The Pick 5 sequence contains 41 horses (averaging 8.2 per race) before scratches, and there are 36,288 possible outcomes.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out race 8, the final leg of the sequence. It’s a $5,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, and morning-line favorite #9 Leslie Chow (3-1) brings formidable credentials to the table.

Leslie Chow has thrown down sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 81, 77, 76, and 75 in four starts since transferring to the care of high-percentage trainer Scooter Davis, a 28% winner at Presque Isle this meet. All four of those starts have come over the Presque Isle Tapeta.

Leslie Chow’s hot streak began with back-to-back victories in $12,500 and $16,000 claimers racing one mile at Presque Isle. The five-year-old gelding then stepped up in class for a pair of 1 1/16-mile allowances, finishing sixth and ninth.

Plunging back down the class ladder for a $5,000 claimer should make Leslie Chow tough to beat under jockey Willie Martinez, a 20% winner teaming up with Davis over the last two months. Throw in the fact none of Leslie Chow’s rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating in the 80 range, and Leslie Chow is clearly the horse to beat if he brings his A game. For all these reasons, he’s a logical single to conclude the Pick 5.

Good luck!