Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: First-timer at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Oct. 22 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Mahoning Valley, including a 12-1 longshot.

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• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers, excluding show bets, at your most wagered track each Tuesday in October.
• 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll ($40) during the duration of the $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder tournament on Tuesday to receive 25% cash back (maximum $10).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

We have to bet first-time starter #8 Purdy Darn Good (12-1) for two simple reasons. One, trainer Doug Cowans wins at a powerful 36% rate with horses debuting at a mile or farther. Two, Purdy Darn Good’s 12-1 morning-line odds are too high given how often Cowans wins with these types of horses.

Throw hot jockey Emmanuel Esquivel into the mix, and Purdy Darn Good is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also play him in the exacta with #3 Ortho Star (5-2), runner-up by a half-length over this track, distance, and class level two starts back.

Selections

• #8 Purdy Darn Good (12-1)
• #3 Ortho Star (5-2)
• #5 Pacific Standard (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #8 Purdy Darn Good
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 8
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 El Sargento (7-2) dueled for the lead through hot pace fractions when finishing second in a six-furlong allowance on Oct. 3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. That effort yielded a 75 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Tuesday’s field.

El Sargento had previously wired a 5 1/2-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis by 10 lengths. If he shakes loose on an easier lead while tackling the allowance ranks for the second time, El Sargento can bounce back to the winner’s circle at nice odds.

Selections

• #5 El Sargento (7-2)
• #1 Complex Music (9-5)
• #3 Charbonnay (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 El Sargento

Mahoning Valley: Race 5: $10,000 Starter Allowance (two miles on dirt, 2:46 p.m. ET)

Speed dominated opening day of the Mahoning Valley meet, with pacesetters winning six out of eight races. Since this two-mile starter allowance figures to unfold at a slow tempo, likely pacesetter #5 Mugsy Malone (6-1) has every chance to lead all the way.

Mugsy Malone has done well running one mile or farther and regularly sets honest pace fractions. Last time out he wired a one-mile $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Mountaineer.

The stoutly bred #1 Digital Software (8-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Mugsy Malone (6-1)
• #1 Digital Software (8-1)
• #7 Count Frost (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Mugsy Malone
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $25

Good luck!